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> Right, but whatever the plan might be, it clearly isn’t working, since the economy continues to slow. 50 years ago China clocked 8% to 10% growth a year, now

> Right, but whatever the plan might be, it clearly isn’t working, since the economy continues to slow. 50 years ago China clocked 8% to 10% growth a year, now they feel very lucky if they can get 6%. I think your comment is quite incorrect, and shows a lack of knowledge of Chinese history. 50 years ago (1969) China was going through the "cultural revolution" under Mao which was absolutely devastating for its economy. In the 1980s China began economic liberalization under Deng Xiaoping and that was when its economy began growing tremendously. So, there is a direct connection between liberalization and growth. Of course no growth of 8-10% is sustainable over many decades, and it's likely they are simply reaching a new equilibrium.

lkrubner 7y ago
No, for God’s sake, no, the Cultural Revolution was not devestating to the economy. Where did you read that? During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution, China still managed to grow 8%. Large scale civil rights violations are not automatically bad for the economy. The German economy grew dramatically during the Holocaust and the best decades for the USA overlap with the mass murder of the Indians and the savage oppression of African-Americans. In China, the Cultural Revolution killed 30 million people, but it did not slow the economy.
- lkrubner 7y ago
  Why is this comment (above) getting down voted? This is a factually true comment.
  - iforgotpassword 7y ago
    Simply stating it is true and again not citing any source doesn't make it "factually true". At least the numbers on Wikipedia seem to contradict this claim. Where did you get yours from?
- WoodenChair 7y ago
  > No, for God’s sake, no, the Cultural Revolution was not devestating to the economy. Where did you read that? During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution, China still managed to grow 8%. I'm afraid the data doesn't back you up at all. The Chinese cultural revolution is considered the years 1966-1976. Here is the data for those years in real per capita GDP growth[0]: 7.7, -8.1, -6.6, 13.7, 16.1, 4.2, 1.3, 5.4, 0.2, 6.8, -3.1 Average: 3.4% Here are the numbers for the 1980s (1980-1990): 6.5, 3.8, 7.4, 9.2, 13.7, 11.9, 7.3, 9.9, 9.4, 2.6, 2.4 Average: 7.6% 7.6% is more than double 3.4%. So, as you can see, all of your assertions are wrong. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China
  - lkrubner 7y ago
    The Wikipedia article that you link to says it includes PPP estimates and also says this: “The GDP also has been converted to U.S. dollar-based data by utilizing the moving average exchange rate.” I disregard PPP estimates since so many subjective and cultural decisions have to go into PPP calculations, and during a civil war there is a wide space for the PPP decisions to include the political factors that we should ignore when discussing the real economy. Likewise, why would it be valid to convert to USA currency? Why not measure year to year growth directly, from the perspective of China? The variations in the currency exchange would again introduce those political factors that a person would want to ignore if they were curious about the real strength of the Chinese economy. Back when I studied Chinese history it was well known that the Chinese economy had done well during the Cultural Revolution. Now that reality is being re-written to fit a political narrative that simply asserts that the economy did not do well during the Cultural Revolution.
    - WoodenChair 7y ago
      > I disregard PPP estimates since so many subjective and cultural decisions have to go into PPP calculations, and during a civil war there is a wide space for the PPP decisions to include the political factors that we should ignore when discussing the real economy. Please link to alternative data that supports your argument. > Likewise, why would it be valid to convert to USA currency? Why not measure year to year growth directly, from the perspective of China? In most economic studies values are converted to US dollars because it is a stable point of reference. Again, if you have data to backup your wild assertions in this thread that go completely against conventional wisdom then I would be very interested in seeing it. Great claims require great evidence. > The variations in the currency exchange would again introduce those political factors that a person would want to ignore if they were curious about the real strength of the Chinese economy. Of course it's not a perfect measure. But you said in an earlier message that "During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution, China still managed to grow 8%." However, the data we do have shows the opposite: the worst year had negative (-8.1%) growth. I don't think any adjustments to currency would account for such a large swing. Sometimes it's best to just admit you're wrong. It certainly would lead to less down votes.

lkrubner 7y ago

No, for God’s sake, no, the Cultural Revolution was not devestating to the economy. Where did you read that? During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution, China still managed to grow 8%. Large scale civil rights violations are not automatically bad for the economy. The German economy grew dramatically during the Holocaust and the best decades for the USA overlap with the mass murder of the Indians and the savage oppression of African-Americans. In China, the Cultural Revolution killed 30 million people, but it did not slow the economy.

lkrubner 7y ago
Why is this comment (above) getting down voted? This is a factually true comment.
- iforgotpassword 7y ago
  Simply stating it is true and again not citing any source doesn't make it "factually true". At least the numbers on Wikipedia seem to contradict this claim. Where did you get yours from?
WoodenChair 7y ago
> No, for God’s sake, no, the Cultural Revolution was not devestating to the economy. Where did you read that? During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution, China still managed to grow 8%. I'm afraid the data doesn't back you up at all. The Chinese cultural revolution is considered the years 1966-1976. Here is the data for those years in real per capita GDP growth[0]: 7.7, -8.1, -6.6, 13.7, 16.1, 4.2, 1.3, 5.4, 0.2, 6.8, -3.1 Average: 3.4% Here are the numbers for the 1980s (1980-1990): 6.5, 3.8, 7.4, 9.2, 13.7, 11.9, 7.3, 9.9, 9.4, 2.6, 2.4 Average: 7.6% 7.6% is more than double 3.4%. So, as you can see, all of your assertions are wrong. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China
- lkrubner 7y ago
  The Wikipedia article that you link to says it includes PPP estimates and also says this: “The GDP also has been converted to U.S. dollar-based data by utilizing the moving average exchange rate.” I disregard PPP estimates since so many subjective and cultural decisions have to go into PPP calculations, and during a civil war there is a wide space for the PPP decisions to include the political factors that we should ignore when discussing the real economy. Likewise, why would it be valid to convert to USA currency? Why not measure year to year growth directly, from the perspective of China? The variations in the currency exchange would again introduce those political factors that a person would want to ignore if they were curious about the real strength of the Chinese economy. Back when I studied Chinese history it was well known that the Chinese economy had done well during the Cultural Revolution. Now that reality is being re-written to fit a political narrative that simply asserts that the economy did not do well during the Cultural Revolution.
  - WoodenChair 7y ago
    > I disregard PPP estimates since so many subjective and cultural decisions have to go into PPP calculations, and during a civil war there is a wide space for the PPP decisions to include the political factors that we should ignore when discussing the real economy. Please link to alternative data that supports your argument. > Likewise, why would it be valid to convert to USA currency? Why not measure year to year growth directly, from the perspective of China? In most economic studies values are converted to US dollars because it is a stable point of reference. Again, if you have data to backup your wild assertions in this thread that go completely against conventional wisdom then I would be very interested in seeing it. Great claims require great evidence. > The variations in the currency exchange would again introduce those political factors that a person would want to ignore if they were curious about the real strength of the Chinese economy. Of course it's not a perfect measure. But you said in an earlier message that "During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution, China still managed to grow 8%." However, the data we do have shows the opposite: the worst year had negative (-8.1%) growth. I don't think any adjustments to currency would account for such a large swing. Sometimes it's best to just admit you're wrong. It certainly would lead to less down votes.