4 ms·

There is a simple counter-argument to this: “It is telling, however, that China is using its long-term planning and robust implementation capacity not to entre

There is a simple counter-argument to this: “It is telling, however, that China is using its long-term planning and robust implementation capacity not to entrench state capitalism, but rather to advance economic liberalization and structural reform.” Right, but whatever the plan might be, it clearly isn’t working, since the economy continues to slow. 50 years ago China clocked 8% to 10% growth a year, now they feel very lucky if they can get 6%. And this is a truly incredible thing for anyone to write: “The fruits of this approach are irrefutable. In the last decade, a number of Chinese private financial and tech giants have emerged that, unlike their state-run counterparts, have managed to establish themselves as global leaders in innovation.” So, according to this, it is actually a sign of success that more and more large Chinese firms feel they need to export capital because they no longer see good investments at home. And that’s success?

WoodenChair 7y ago
> Right, but whatever the plan might be, it clearly isn’t working, since the economy continues to slow. 50 years ago China clocked 8% to 10% growth a year, now they feel very lucky if they can get 6%. I think your comment is quite incorrect, and shows a lack of knowledge of Chinese history. 50 years ago (1969) China was going through the "cultural revolution" under Mao which was absolutely devastating for its economy. In the 1980s China began economic liberalization under Deng Xiaoping and that was when its economy began growing tremendously. So, there is a direct connection between liberalization and growth. Of course no growth of 8-10% is sustainable over many decades, and it's likely they are simply reaching a new equilibrium.
- lkrubner 7y ago
  No, for God’s sake, no, the Cultural Revolution was not devestating to the economy. Where did you read that? During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution, China still managed to grow 8%. Large scale civil rights violations are not automatically bad for the economy. The German economy grew dramatically during the Holocaust and the best decades for the USA overlap with the mass murder of the Indians and the savage oppression of African-Americans. In China, the Cultural Revolution killed 30 million people, but it did not slow the economy.
  - lkrubner 7y ago
    Why is this comment (above) getting down voted? This is a factually true comment.
    - iforgotpassword 7y ago
      Simply stating it is true and again not citing any source doesn't make it "factually true". At least the numbers on Wikipedia seem to contradict this claim. Where did you get yours from?
  - WoodenChair 7y ago
    > No, for God’s sake, no, the Cultural Revolution was not devestating to the economy. Where did you read that? During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution, China still managed to grow 8%. I'm afraid the data doesn't back you up at all. The Chinese cultural revolution is considered the years 1966-1976. Here is the data for those years in real per capita GDP growth[0]: 7.7, -8.1, -6.6, 13.7, 16.1, 4.2, 1.3, 5.4, 0.2, 6.8, -3.1 Average: 3.4% Here are the numbers for the 1980s (1980-1990): 6.5, 3.8, 7.4, 9.2, 13.7, 11.9, 7.3, 9.9, 9.4, 2.6, 2.4 Average: 7.6% 7.6% is more than double 3.4%. So, as you can see, all of your assertions are wrong. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China
    - lkrubner 7y ago
      The Wikipedia article that you link to says it includes PPP estimates and also says this: “The GDP also has been converted to U.S. dollar-based data by utilizing the moving average exchange rate.” I disregard PPP estimates since so many subjective and cultural decisions have to go into PPP calculations, and during a civil war there is a wide space for the PPP decisions to include the political factors that we should ignore when discussing the real economy. Likewise, why would it be valid to convert to USA currency? Why not measure year to year growth directly, from the perspective of China? The variations in the currency exchange would again introduce those political factors that a person would want to ignore if they were curious about the real strength of the Chinese economy. Back when I studied Chinese history it was well known that the Chinese economy had done well during the Cultural Revolution. Now that reality is being re-written to fit a political narrative that simply asserts that the economy did not do well during the Cultural Revolution.
tomlockwood 7y ago
That's an interesting perspective considering the US Economy hasn't broken 3% GDP growth per year since 2005.
- lkrubner 7y ago
  I don’t think many people realize how long ago was the era when the USA was special. The USA economy grew faster than any other country for most of the period from 1848 to 1929. A huge gap opened up between the USA and the rest of the world. By 1929, the USA produced more steel than all of Europe combined. But the USA has not been the #1 fastest growing nation in any year since 1929.
  - wolco 7y ago
    And never will be until they fall down or open all borders. In 1848 Canada wouldn't be a country yet for 20 years.
  - indemnity 7y ago
    When averaging it out over 150 years, the USA growth rate is ~2% p.a. The USA's secret is managing to have stayed stable enough over that period, and having maintained that growth number. No-one can sustain 8-10% indefinitely, once the "easy" growth (industrialization, infrastructure, education, urbanization) is in the bag.

WoodenChair 7y ago

> Right, but whatever the plan might be, it clearly isn’t working, since the economy continues to slow. 50 years ago China clocked 8% to 10% growth a year, now they feel very lucky if they can get 6%. I think your comment is quite incorrect, and shows a lack of knowledge of Chinese history. 50 years ago (1969) China was going through the "cultural revolution" under Mao which was absolutely devastating for its economy. In the 1980s China began economic liberalization under Deng Xiaoping and that was when its economy began growing tremendously. So, there is a direct connection between liberalization and growth. Of course no growth of 8-10% is sustainable over many decades, and it's likely they are simply reaching a new equilibrium.

lkrubner 7y ago
No, for God’s sake, no, the Cultural Revolution was not devestating to the economy. Where did you read that? During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution, China still managed to grow 8%. Large scale civil rights violations are not automatically bad for the economy. The German economy grew dramatically during the Holocaust and the best decades for the USA overlap with the mass murder of the Indians and the savage oppression of African-Americans. In China, the Cultural Revolution killed 30 million people, but it did not slow the economy.
- lkrubner 7y ago
  Why is this comment (above) getting down voted? This is a factually true comment.
  - iforgotpassword 7y ago
    Simply stating it is true and again not citing any source doesn't make it "factually true". At least the numbers on Wikipedia seem to contradict this claim. Where did you get yours from?
- WoodenChair 7y ago
  > No, for God’s sake, no, the Cultural Revolution was not devestating to the economy. Where did you read that? During the worst year of the Cultural Revolution, China still managed to grow 8%. I'm afraid the data doesn't back you up at all. The Chinese cultural revolution is considered the years 1966-1976. Here is the data for those years in real per capita GDP growth[0]: 7.7, -8.1, -6.6, 13.7, 16.1, 4.2, 1.3, 5.4, 0.2, 6.8, -3.1 Average: 3.4% Here are the numbers for the 1980s (1980-1990): 6.5, 3.8, 7.4, 9.2, 13.7, 11.9, 7.3, 9.9, 9.4, 2.6, 2.4 Average: 7.6% 7.6% is more than double 3.4%. So, as you can see, all of your assertions are wrong. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China
  - lkrubner 7y ago
    The Wikipedia article that you link to says it includes PPP estimates and also says this: “The GDP also has been converted to U.S. dollar-based data by utilizing the moving average exchange rate.” I disregard PPP estimates since so many subjective and cultural decisions have to go into PPP calculations, and during a civil war there is a wide space for the PPP decisions to include the political factors that we should ignore when discussing the real economy. Likewise, why would it be valid to convert to USA currency? Why not measure year to year growth directly, from the perspective of China? The variations in the currency exchange would again introduce those political factors that a person would want to ignore if they were curious about the real strength of the Chinese economy. Back when I studied Chinese history it was well known that the Chinese economy had done well during the Cultural Revolution. Now that reality is being re-written to fit a political narrative that simply asserts that the economy did not do well during the Cultural Revolution.

tomlockwood 7y ago

That's an interesting perspective considering the US Economy hasn't broken 3% GDP growth per year since 2005.

lkrubner 7y ago
I don’t think many people realize how long ago was the era when the USA was special. The USA economy grew faster than any other country for most of the period from 1848 to 1929. A huge gap opened up between the USA and the rest of the world. By 1929, the USA produced more steel than all of Europe combined. But the USA has not been the #1 fastest growing nation in any year since 1929.
- wolco 7y ago
  And never will be until they fall down or open all borders. In 1848 Canada wouldn't be a country yet for 20 years.
- indemnity 7y ago
  When averaging it out over 150 years, the USA growth rate is ~2% p.a. The USA's secret is managing to have stayed stable enough over that period, and having maintained that growth number. No-one can sustain 8-10% indefinitely, once the "easy" growth (industrialization, infrastructure, education, urbanization) is in the bag.