Here is a summary of the 71 20-year holding periods on record. color return occurs chances red <0% 8 11.3% pink 0-3%

Here is a summary of the 71 20-year holding periods on record. color return occurs chances red <0% 8 11.3% pink 0-3% 18 25.4% beige 3-7% 31 43.7% light green 7-10% 14 19.7% dark green >10% 0 0.0% Here is the 20 year growth multiple at various returns. return multiple -0.02 0.67 -0.01 0.82 0 1.00 0.01 1.22 0.02 1.49 0.03 1.81 0.04 2.19 0.05 2.65 0.06 3.21 0.07 3.87 0.08 4.66 0.09 5.60 0.1 6.73 0.11 8.06 Optimistic conclusion: If you hold a diversified portfolio of large domestic stocks for 20 years, you will likely double (and maybe even quadruple) your spending power. The chances of ending up with less than your original spending power: 11.3%. The chances of quadrupling your original spending power (exceeding 7% per year): 19.7%. The chances of achieving 6.73 times your original spending power (the elusive 10% per year): It hasn't occurred yet.