7 ms·

Likely in that other industry the engineer built 100+ other basically identical items that are two or three orders of magnitude less complex and where all the c

Likely in that other industry the engineer built 100+ other basically identical items that are two or three orders of magnitude less complex and where all the costs and techniques are pretty well known. Also, those mature industries routinely overrun by millions of dollars and months or years, event though they are dealing with a fraction of the complexity and the costs and techniques are well known. Software is the only industry where you are asked to build systems that have never been built before but that are more complex than anything ever built in the history of "mature industries", on top of astronomically complex systems, and estimate it with an accuracy of 5 to 10 days and a few thousand dollars.

kjsthree 7y ago
> Software is the only industry where you are asked to build systems that have never been built before but that are more complex than anything ever built in the history of "mature industries" I have a feeling that some SpaceX engineers would have something to say about this after one of their rockets lands on a floating barge.
- shkkmo 7y ago
  > I have a feeling that some SpaceX engineers would have something to say about this after one of their rockets lands on a floating barge. That is because you are ignoring/left out the critical last part of the phrase you quoted: "and estimate it with an accuracy of 5 to 10 days and a few thousand dollars." This is particularly relevant because this is a direct response to the following: > We can't even accurately estimate the cost of a complex project given our choice of tools, let alone talk about costs and ROI with different toolchains for the same projects.
- lexs 7y ago
  Some McDonnell Douglas DC-X engineers would probably have something to say about your comment too.
- newen 7y ago
  It's especially hilarious because he is comparing projects done by bootcamp graduates to projects done by highly trained PhDs. Some people just don't have a clue about the massive difference involved in webdev type projects and complex engineering projects.
- jacobsenscott 7y ago
  Software landed the rocket on on a floating barge. The hardware is just holes for hot gas to come out.
pjmlp 7y ago
90% of Web applications are database frontends. What they do to the end user might be different, how the pieces come together, it is always the same, unless one is doing curriculum driven development.
- collyw 7y ago
  I wish we could get away from the fashion show in this industry. Currently we have a React frontend, which just adds extra complexity for no real benefit. But its fashionable.
  - eropple 7y ago
    React (and other SPAs) may be fashionable, but I generally contend that--when written well or even passably, which obviously requires an asterisk lest the Scotsmen come by but I don't think is a very high bar--if nothing else it requires developers to treat a web application as a client of an API rather than tightly integrating it. It enforces a level of separation of concerns that, IME, tends to encourage loose coupling and better design. Forget everything about responsiveness or whatever (which I find way more valuable than the tradeoffs one makes)--the lack of tight coupling is the real win of React and similar. I mean, if you'd like you can pretty easily build a server-side React app with NextJS and still get a lot of these benefits while using React purely as a pretty-dang-good templating language.
    - I_complete_me 7y ago
      Off topic this but your phrase "lest the Scotsmen come by" intrigued me. It sounds vaguely idiomatic but I don't know the reference. Any enlightenment available?
      - steve_g 7y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman
saiya-jin 7y ago
Yeah, I used to hold similar naive views fresh out of school. Reality is, at least 98% of the software out there is just redoing what has been done, copy paste for slightly different purposes, integrating libs in slightly different ways. But maybe its hard to admit it, lower down your ego and be a bit humble. Yes, software development is a creative work, but so are all other engineering branches. And yes, we have massive issues with code, process and people quality across whole business.
Xelbair 7y ago
>Software is the only industry where you are asked to build systems that have never been built before but that are more complex than anything ever built in the history of "mature industries", on top of astronomically complex systems, and estimate it with an accuracy of 5 to 10 days and a few thousand dollars. You are seriously overestimating complexity and novelty of most software development, while underestimating engineering in other industries. I work currently as software developer and previously in a branch of a civil engineering. Do you seriously think that other engineering disciplines to not have those small little problems that plague us all the time in software development? They do, but they can offer their solutions based on data, not just whim. They do also have codified standards, and guidelines and certification exams. On the other hand software development is relatively new discipline - other fields had hundred of years to mature. EDIT: and they are catching up with rapid prototyping - it is getting cheaper and faster.
CapricornNoble 7y ago
>>>>Software is the only industry where you are asked to build systems that have never been built before but that are more complex than anything ever built in the history of "mature industries" Anyone engineering hypersonic missiles would easily dispute that.[1] Or submarine-capable quantum communication systems.[2] [1]https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missi... [2]https://www.realcleardefense.com/2017/11/04/quantum_communications_and_chinese_ssbn_strategy_298029.html https://www.realcleardefense.com/2017/11/04/quantum_communic...
- jacobsenscott 7y ago
  There are occasionally novel engineering projects. These will be millions of dollars and years over budget, and then will fail. All their "mature industry standards and procedures and certifications" wont' save them.
  - CapricornNoble 7y ago
    It's unwise to extrapolate the US defense industry's procurement problems onto the Russians and Chinese. There's reasonable evidence to suggest the Russian Kinzhal and Zircon hypersonic missiles are already Working As Designed, or fairly close to it.[1][2] [1]https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/2178620/nothing-matches-our-new-hypersonic-weapons-and-they https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/... [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M22_Zircon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M22_Zircon

kjsthree 7y ago

> Software is the only industry where you are asked to build systems that have never been built before but that are more complex than anything ever built in the history of "mature industries" I have a feeling that some SpaceX engineers would have something to say about this after one of their rockets lands on a floating barge.

shkkmo 7y ago
> I have a feeling that some SpaceX engineers would have something to say about this after one of their rockets lands on a floating barge. That is because you are ignoring/left out the critical last part of the phrase you quoted: "and estimate it with an accuracy of 5 to 10 days and a few thousand dollars." This is particularly relevant because this is a direct response to the following: > We can't even accurately estimate the cost of a complex project given our choice of tools, let alone talk about costs and ROI with different toolchains for the same projects.
lexs 7y ago
Some McDonnell Douglas DC-X engineers would probably have something to say about your comment too.
newen 7y ago
It's especially hilarious because he is comparing projects done by bootcamp graduates to projects done by highly trained PhDs. Some people just don't have a clue about the massive difference involved in webdev type projects and complex engineering projects.
jacobsenscott 7y ago
Software landed the rocket on on a floating barge. The hardware is just holes for hot gas to come out.

pjmlp 7y ago

90% of Web applications are database frontends. What they do to the end user might be different, how the pieces come together, it is always the same, unless one is doing curriculum driven development.

collyw 7y ago
I wish we could get away from the fashion show in this industry. Currently we have a React frontend, which just adds extra complexity for no real benefit. But its fashionable.
- eropple 7y ago
  React (and other SPAs) may be fashionable, but I generally contend that--when written well or even passably, which obviously requires an asterisk lest the Scotsmen come by but I don't think is a very high bar--if nothing else it requires developers to treat a web application as a client of an API rather than tightly integrating it. It enforces a level of separation of concerns that, IME, tends to encourage loose coupling and better design. Forget everything about responsiveness or whatever (which I find way more valuable than the tradeoffs one makes)--the lack of tight coupling is the real win of React and similar. I mean, if you'd like you can pretty easily build a server-side React app with NextJS and still get a lot of these benefits while using React purely as a pretty-dang-good templating language.
  - I_complete_me 7y ago
    Off topic this but your phrase "lest the Scotsmen come by" intrigued me. It sounds vaguely idiomatic but I don't know the reference. Any enlightenment available?
    - steve_g 7y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman

saiya-jin 7y ago

Yeah, I used to hold similar naive views fresh out of school. Reality is, at least 98% of the software out there is just redoing what has been done, copy paste for slightly different purposes, integrating libs in slightly different ways. But maybe its hard to admit it, lower down your ego and be a bit humble. Yes, software development is a creative work, but so are all other engineering branches. And yes, we have massive issues with code, process and people quality across whole business.

Xelbair 7y ago

>Software is the only industry where you are asked to build systems that have never been built before but that are more complex than anything ever built in the history of "mature industries", on top of astronomically complex systems, and estimate it with an accuracy of 5 to 10 days and a few thousand dollars. You are seriously overestimating complexity and novelty of most software development, while underestimating engineering in other industries. I work currently as software developer and previously in a branch of a civil engineering. Do you seriously think that other engineering disciplines to not have those small little problems that plague us all the time in software development? They do, but they can offer their solutions based on data, not just whim. They do also have codified standards, and guidelines and certification exams. On the other hand software development is relatively new discipline - other fields had hundred of years to mature. EDIT: and they are catching up with rapid prototyping - it is getting cheaper and faster.

CapricornNoble 7y ago

>>>>Software is the only industry where you are asked to build systems that have never been built before but that are more complex than anything ever built in the history of "mature industries" Anyone engineering hypersonic missiles would easily dispute that.[1] Or submarine-capable quantum communication systems.[2] [1]https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missi... [2]https://www.realcleardefense.com/2017/11/04/quantum_communications_and_chinese_ssbn_strategy_298029.html https://www.realcleardefense.com/2017/11/04/quantum_communic...

jacobsenscott 7y ago
There are occasionally novel engineering projects. These will be millions of dollars and years over budget, and then will fail. All their "mature industry standards and procedures and certifications" wont' save them.
- CapricornNoble 7y ago
  It's unwise to extrapolate the US defense industry's procurement problems onto the Russians and Chinese. There's reasonable evidence to suggest the Russian Kinzhal and Zircon hypersonic missiles are already Working As Designed, or fairly close to it.[1][2] [1]https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/2178620/nothing-matches-our-new-hypersonic-weapons-and-they https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/... [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M22_Zircon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M22_Zircon