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This idea that technology improves exponentially ad infinitum is bogus. Nothing in nature can grow exponentially in the long run. There are plenty of technologi
by gridlockd 7y ago
This idea that technology improves exponentially ad infinitum is bogus. Nothing in nature can grow exponentially in the long run. There are plenty of technologies that have almost plateaued, passenger airplanes for instance.
In the past, people envisioned an era of free electricity because surely nuclear energy would improve exponentially. It did not. Neither will renewables.
- rossdavidh 7y agoSure, and Moore's Law for semiconductor transistors didn't last forever, either. But, it lasted from the mid-20th century well into the 21st, over several orders of magnitude reduction in cost. The current exponential decline in the cost/kWh of solar and wind generated electricity is not as steep, but it is exponential, and it has been going on for decades. If it continues for even one more decade (and that seems quite likely, as the amount of R&D going into it is increasing), then it will drive all fossil fuels off the market. I don't think we're ready for that.