3 ms·
> Primary energy consumption grows at about 1% to 2% a year, and that rate has trended downward, more or less, since the 1960s. That’s linear growth How come?
by acqq 7y ago
> Primary energy consumption grows at about 1% to 2% a year, and that rate has trended downward, more or less, since the 1960s. That’s linear growth
How come? Even "just" 1% per year growth in consumption is still exponential: starting with consuming 100 of something this year, in 70 years you'll consume 200 per year, but after the next 70 years you'll consume 400 per year.
During the first 70 years you would have totally consumed 10000 of that something, and during the next 70 years 20000 of that total. In the next 70 years, 40000 of that etc.
For 2% growth, each doubling takes just 36 years.
More details, quoting Al Bartlett's "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function" here:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20552490 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20552490