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Here's the funny thing about recessions - they're usually predicated by some exuberance somewhere, and when it bursts it then ripples to the rest of the economy

Here's the funny thing about recessions - they're usually predicated by some exuberance somewhere, and when it bursts it then ripples to the rest of the economy. 1930 was the stock market, 2000 was the dot com, 2007 was real estate (there's a bunch of recessions in between I'm skipping because I'm less familiar w/ them). This time around...there's actually NOT a lot of exuberance. People are still scared and not getting ahead. Unemployment is at record lows but wage growth is stagnant, meanwhile people's basic expenses have exploded through the roof. Who has money to spare on stupid fads & bets? People are just trying to afford housing, healthcare, and education. I feel like a lot of the talk around recession is simply people EXPECTING a recession and reacting accordingly, which will cause some downturn but won't impact the fundamentals of people buying shit in the economy. I'm not saying we won't ever have a huge recession again, of course we will, but I don't see a current real indicator of it.

padseeker 7y ago
How is it possible that basic expenses are through the roof (I agree with this) but its not reflected in inflation? It doesn't make sense to me. I'm not an economist, is there something I am missing or misunderstanding? Housing costs are through the rough but everything else is stable?
delfinom 7y ago
>I'm not saying we won't ever have a huge recession again, of course we will, but I don't see a current real indicator of it. What? Are you just ignoring to ignore real estate bubble 2.0 (empty properties kept by speculators but at the end of the tunnel the price will implode when nobody has money to buy), the average length of car loans exceeding 5 years as people push out for lower and lower monthly minimums because they otherwise can't afford those $50k trucks, and other elephants such as medical and student loan debt?
- graeme 7y ago
  The funny thing is people are doing all that with resignation rather than exuberance this time around, at least that’s the zeitgeist I perceive. I’m guessing the fact that they’re doing it is the significant part, but it does feel different to earlier times.
krona 7y ago
Corporate debt is the driver of the next recession. From the debt fueled growth of Chinese business to the exploding pension funds of Europe. That's where the exuberance is.
H8crilA 7y ago
You may be interested to know that the stock market is more overvalued than in 2008 (CAPE), and home prices are also higher than then (Case-Shiller). There is some exuberance in the corporate credit. How does Uber survive for so long, selling dollar bills for 70c.
- yasp 7y ago
  What about when you normalize for the current low interest rate environment?
  - H8crilA 7y ago
    That is a good question that I don't know the answer to. Warren Buffet says that according to him "if interest rates will stay this low then stocks are dirt cheap". But, Europe and Japan also have zero interest rates, and you don't see such high CAPE valuations there.
joewadcan 7y ago
> This time around...there's actually NOT a lot of exuberance. I'd argue that you're scoping exuberance only to consumers. If you define exuberance a bit more broadly, there's lots of irrational behavior in corporate debt right now. This could be a result of super low interest rates and unchanged expectations from fund managers, but it's less obvious than homeowners buying a third and fourth house because they can. Corporate debt might not seem to be able to topple an entire economy, but we don't really know how widespread those ripples could go. If corporate debt dries up, businesses stop expanding and jobs could be at risk.
- Izkata 7y ago
  One example, if I'm understanding the exuberance idea right, is tech valuations like Uber - in the billions, but also can't make a profit.
rbavocadotree 7y ago
How about private equity? It's not something that makes mainstream news often, but it's a bubble that many are expecting to burst. It's a massive market that relies on heavily leveraged borrowing and is tightly integrated with the well being of the economy. Just like the mortgage market of 2007.
JeremyNT 7y ago
> This time around...there's actually NOT a lot of exuberance. It's always in the best interest of the people who benefit from a bubble to make such driving factors less visible, so the bubble can continue longer - and hindsight is, as they say, 20/20. Which is to say... just because you can't see the causes yet, doesn't mean that they're not there. The Fed is happily handing out cash and people are borrowing large amounts of it to shuffle around while they can. There are lots of areas where people are making what normally would be considered risky bets which keep paying off because the economy is strong, and they just leverage themselves in the extreme to take advantage of that. So whether it's another real estate collapse or another SV-funded startup collapse or some other kind of collapse that isn't yet apparent, after the other shoe does finally drop we'll be kicking ourselves for not noticing how bad things had gotten on the way there.
thesagan 7y ago
There's a lot of exuberance lately in areas that benefit from low interest rates; housing (again), corporate debt (this one is huge), and sovereign debt (another big one). Over the last few decades, we seem to have a boom-bust debt cycle of sorts, and it doesn't seem to be abating at the moment given what we're seeing with the Fed, yields, and debt.
cylinder 7y ago
I generally agree and promote this sentiment. However, you are confusing bubbles popping with recessions. You can have standard recessions without bubbles.

padseeker 7y ago

How is it possible that basic expenses are through the roof (I agree with this) but its not reflected in inflation? It doesn't make sense to me. I'm not an economist, is there something I am missing or misunderstanding? Housing costs are through the rough but everything else is stable?

delfinom 7y ago

>I'm not saying we won't ever have a huge recession again, of course we will, but I don't see a current real indicator of it. What? Are you just ignoring to ignore real estate bubble 2.0 (empty properties kept by speculators but at the end of the tunnel the price will implode when nobody has money to buy), the average length of car loans exceeding 5 years as people push out for lower and lower monthly minimums because they otherwise can't afford those $50k trucks, and other elephants such as medical and student loan debt?

graeme 7y ago
The funny thing is people are doing all that with resignation rather than exuberance this time around, at least that’s the zeitgeist I perceive. I’m guessing the fact that they’re doing it is the significant part, but it does feel different to earlier times.

krona 7y ago

Corporate debt is the driver of the next recession. From the debt fueled growth of Chinese business to the exploding pension funds of Europe. That's where the exuberance is.

H8crilA 7y ago

You may be interested to know that the stock market is more overvalued than in 2008 (CAPE), and home prices are also higher than then (Case-Shiller). There is some exuberance in the corporate credit. How does Uber survive for so long, selling dollar bills for 70c.

yasp 7y ago
What about when you normalize for the current low interest rate environment?
- H8crilA 7y ago
  That is a good question that I don't know the answer to. Warren Buffet says that according to him "if interest rates will stay this low then stocks are dirt cheap". But, Europe and Japan also have zero interest rates, and you don't see such high CAPE valuations there.

joewadcan 7y ago

> This time around...there's actually NOT a lot of exuberance. I'd argue that you're scoping exuberance only to consumers. If you define exuberance a bit more broadly, there's lots of irrational behavior in corporate debt right now. This could be a result of super low interest rates and unchanged expectations from fund managers, but it's less obvious than homeowners buying a third and fourth house because they can. Corporate debt might not seem to be able to topple an entire economy, but we don't really know how widespread those ripples could go. If corporate debt dries up, businesses stop expanding and jobs could be at risk.

Izkata 7y ago
One example, if I'm understanding the exuberance idea right, is tech valuations like Uber - in the billions, but also can't make a profit.

rbavocadotree 7y ago

How about private equity? It's not something that makes mainstream news often, but it's a bubble that many are expecting to burst. It's a massive market that relies on heavily leveraged borrowing and is tightly integrated with the well being of the economy. Just like the mortgage market of 2007.

JeremyNT 7y ago

> This time around...there's actually NOT a lot of exuberance. It's always in the best interest of the people who benefit from a bubble to make such driving factors less visible, so the bubble can continue longer - and hindsight is, as they say, 20/20. Which is to say... just because you can't see the causes yet, doesn't mean that they're not there. The Fed is happily handing out cash and people are borrowing large amounts of it to shuffle around while they can. There are lots of areas where people are making what normally would be considered risky bets which keep paying off because the economy is strong, and they just leverage themselves in the extreme to take advantage of that. So whether it's another real estate collapse or another SV-funded startup collapse or some other kind of collapse that isn't yet apparent, after the other shoe does finally drop we'll be kicking ourselves for not noticing how bad things had gotten on the way there.

thesagan 7y ago

There's a lot of exuberance lately in areas that benefit from low interest rates; housing (again), corporate debt (this one is huge), and sovereign debt (another big one). Over the last few decades, we seem to have a boom-bust debt cycle of sorts, and it doesn't seem to be abating at the moment given what we're seeing with the Fed, yields, and debt.

cylinder 7y ago

I generally agree and promote this sentiment. However, you are confusing bubbles popping with recessions. You can have standard recessions without bubbles.