This paper really only shows that: 1) Confirmation rates are actually higher than commonly believed (= roughly one third) 2) If we carefully select for compan

This paper really only shows that: 1) Confirmation rates are actually higher than commonly believed (= roughly one third) 2) If we carefully select for companies that are likely to succeed with confirmation, success rates are higher. Well, duh. There's a valid argument there, saying that the value of Chapter 11 should not be measured in terms of confirmation rates, because hopeless cases are hopeless no matter how good the law is. Yet, this doesn't support your view that most companies that file for bankruptcy will survive. If anything, it shows the opposite.