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> markets decline due to the assumption that the yield curve inversion is a perfect forward indicator of recession. I don't think you are saying it is, just th

> markets decline due to the assumption that the yield curve inversion is a perfect forward indicator of recession. I don't think you are saying it is, just that the markets believe it is, but the funny thing is that it's not a perfect predictor of an oncoming recession. While all our recent major market down turns have been preceded by a yield curve inversion, there have been plenty of times that the yield curve inverted and was not preceded by a recession.

lazerpants 7y ago
>While all our recent major market down turns have been preceded by a yield curve inversion, there have been plenty of times that the yield curve inverted and was not preceded by a recession. I thought it only inverted once without a recession in the following 30 months. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years and has only offered a false signal just once in that time, according to data from Reuters." https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/the-us-bond-yield-curve-has-inverted-heres-what-it-means.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/the-us-bond-yield-curve-has-...