3 ms·

I've only been holding out since ~2017, but I definitely see your point. I know I'm probably being irrational by continuing to hold out, and I'm suffering a bit

by datpuz 7y ago

I've only been holding out since ~2017, but I definitely see your point. I know I'm probably being irrational by continuing to hold out, and I'm suffering a bit from the sunk cost fallacy. I guess I'm irrationally avoiding the situation where I held out for two years, only to buy in at the top, and look like a total doofus.

ijpoijpoihpiuoh 7y ago
I know a guy who is in a very similar situation, although he's been holding out since about '15. IMO, what looks smart is doing the thing that has the correct risk/reward tradeoff, even if you happen to lose the bet.
- mrep 7y ago
  Holy shit! In the past 5 years, the S&P 500 has returned 50% just counting stock price and not dividends reinvested. Talk about sunk costs, even the SP 500 only dropped 50% during the great recession.
  - ijpoijpoihpiuoh 7y ago
    You're telling me! I've been begging him to get in but he just can't get over the mental hurdle. The really astonishing thing is that he doesn't have a problem holding on to the stock grants his employer issues him. ?????? You can lead a horse to water . . .
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
fourstar 7y ago
Do not listen to these people who constantly tell you to “just invest now, it’ll average out, etc”. Go with your gut. Cash is a position. Know when and how to use it to your advantage.
- smileysteve 7y ago
  https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market...
- pedrocr 7y ago
  If you know how to do this you should be making bundles of money trading other people's money. If it's your own money and you don't have any particular reason you think you have a deep insight don't fall into the trap of thinking you see patterns where they don't exist. Our brains pattern match way too much. Retail investors with actual insight into markets have to be one in a million or less.
  - fourstar 7y ago
    You can make great money with this method. It’s called buying low and selling high. It’s how the majority of non-leveraged investors make their fortunes. Just need to wait for the next down cycle. Everything is cyclical.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

by datpuz 7y ago

ijpoijpoihpiuoh 7y ago

I know a guy who is in a very similar situation, although he's been holding out since about '15. IMO, what looks smart is doing the thing that has the correct risk/reward tradeoff, even if you happen to lose the bet.

mrep 7y ago
Holy shit! In the past 5 years, the S&P 500 has returned 50% just counting stock price and not dividends reinvested. Talk about sunk costs, even the SP 500 only dropped 50% during the great recession.
- ijpoijpoihpiuoh 7y ago
  You're telling me! I've been begging him to get in but he just can't get over the mental hurdle. The really astonishing thing is that he doesn't have a problem holding on to the stock grants his employer issues him. ?????? You can lead a horse to water . . .
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]

fourstar 7y ago

Do not listen to these people who constantly tell you to “just invest now, it’ll average out, etc”. Go with your gut. Cash is a position. Know when and how to use it to your advantage.

smileysteve 7y ago
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market...
pedrocr 7y ago
If you know how to do this you should be making bundles of money trading other people's money. If it's your own money and you don't have any particular reason you think you have a deep insight don't fall into the trap of thinking you see patterns where they don't exist. Our brains pattern match way too much. Retail investors with actual insight into markets have to be one in a million or less.
- fourstar 7y ago
  You can make great money with this method. It’s called buying low and selling high. It’s how the majority of non-leveraged investors make their fortunes. Just need to wait for the next down cycle. Everything is cyclical.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]