They will go for the cheaper option all else being the same. Battery replacement actually isn’t an issue for EVs with good thermal management. There’s already

They will go for the cheaper option all else being the same. Battery replacement actually isn’t an issue for EVs with good thermal management. There’s already plenty of data out there for Teslas which indicate very few battery problems, no more than the kind of occasional drivetrain failures you get with internal combustion cars. The idea that owners will have to replace batteries as a matter or course was valid for some early and basic cars, but is clearly not an issue any more for most vehicles, and no vehicle at the premium end. Short range and charging is an issue depending on what segment of the market you’re talking about. The current state of the art, which will likely be normal in 5-10 years, is 6 hours of driving for 35 minutes of charging. And, of course, the car starts the day full. That will be a restriction for a part of the market, but you’re claiming 2% is an overextension, which seems manifestly unlikely to me. EV’s have other benefits as well, not least the immediate torque and acceleration, which has previously been a differentiator.