5 ms·

just want to point out that per capita gun deaths is the wrong metric to use - the vast majority of deaths by gun are suicides

ceejayoz 7y ago
"If we reduced mass shootings by restricting gun access, we might accidentally reduce suicides" sounds like an upside, not a downside.
- ameister14 7y ago
  That'd completely be an upside, if the data showed that happened. I don't know that it does. The US has a lower suicide rate than some other developed countries even with guns, and the Americas in general are significantly under Europe in crude rate per capita numbers.
  - ceejayoz 7y ago
    Comparing countries against each other gets very sticky, due to differences in reporting. We do, however, have a variety of same-country data demonstrating it happens. Several examples here: https://americanhealth.jhu.edu/article/how-do-gun-laws-affect-suicide-rates https://americanhealth.jhu.edu/article/how-do-gun-laws-affec... IIRC, there's also the factor that attempts with guns tend to be more successful - other methods like pills tend to take longer, be easier to mess up, and offer the ability to renege or have someone intervene in a way guns tend not to.
    - ameister14 7y ago
      Those are interesting. Unfortunately, the only definitive bit shows that CAD laws are likely to lower general suicide rates by about 8% among people age 14-17. That's important, and those laws should probably be enacted in order to make that happen. Unfortunately, laws about the age at which it is legal to purchase or possess a gun show no effect. Basically, if you are allowed to own a gun or not as a child, there's no relationship. The decrease only happens when there is a gun in the home and it is stored properly, where children can't get at it easily. The message I get from that is make guns more difficult to get in times of mental crisis and it will lower the firearm related suicide rate, but not necessarily the general suicide rate outside of that 14-17 age group. Also, the relationship with suicide attempts is likewise sticky, because a lot of suicide attempts are not really a driven attempt to die. Many take a number of pills, for example, then purposefully leave out the pill bottle or tell people prior to the attempt. It's a difficult thing to track in terms of metrics.
throw0101a 7y ago
> the vast majority of deaths by gun are suicides Which can be reduced by restricting access to guns: > The use of firearms is a common means of suicide. We examined the effect of a policy change in the Israeli Defense Forces reducing adolescents’ access to firearms on rates of suicide. Following the policy change, suicide rates decreased significantly by 40%. Most of this decrease was due to decrease in suicide using firearms over the weekend. There were no significant changes in rates of suicide during weekdays. Decreasing access to firearms significantly decreases rates of suicide among adolescents. The results of this study illustrate the ability of a rela- tively simple change in policy to have a major impact on suicide rates. * https://www.gsoa.ch/media/medialibrary/2010/12/Lubin_10.pdf https://www.gsoa.ch/media/medialibrary/2010/12/Lubin_10.pdf Also: > In 1995, Connecticut established a "permit to purchase" law, which required a background check and eight hours of safety training for those seeking to buy a handgun. > Missouri used to have a law like that, too, but repealed it in 2007. > New research shows what happened afterward. Firearm suicide rates fell 15.4 percent in Connecticut — but rose 16.1 percent in Missouri. The study, published in the journal Preventive Medicine, only confirms what other papers have found: Making it harder to access guns correlates with fewer suicides. * https://www.vox.com/2015/9/2/9242147/gun-control-connecticut-suicides https://www.vox.com/2015/9/2/9242147/gun-control-connecticut...
- ameister14 7y ago
  >New research shows what happened afterward. Firearm suicide rates fell 15.4 percent in Connecticut — but rose 16.1 percent in Missouri. The study, published in the journal Preventive Medicine, only confirms what other papers have found: Making it harder to access guns correlates with fewer suicides. That's a misread of the study - making it harder to access guns does not correlate with fewer suicides - it correlates with fewer Firearm suicides. Further, reading the studies referenced, you will find that they simply show correlation without examining other risk factors. I'm pretty comfortable with the idea that less guns=less shooting, personally, though I know some people disagree with that for some reason. I don't know about less guns=less violence in general, though. That study of the IDF is interesting, especially how they ignore the fact that there was not actually a 40% drop in gun related suicides; there was a 70% drop in suicide by gun, from 10 to 3, and a more general drop from 28 to 16.5 with another 4.5 per capita coming from non-gun related suicide. Despite this, they claim the entire 40% drop was driven by the gun change. This is interesting because it was not the only significant policy change the IDF put in place between 2005 and 2007 in order to address suicide, so it's pretty difficult to claim a direct causal relationship which is what they did. Based on that, you would expect countries with lower rates of gun ownership to have lower adolescent suicide rates, and those with higher rates of gun ownership to have higher adolescent suicide rates. According to the WHO, though, that is not the case. The US, for example, had a below average adolescent suicide rate in 2000, whereas New Zealand, Luxembourg, Ireland, norway, Austria and others had higher than average rates.

ceejayoz 7y ago

"If we reduced mass shootings by restricting gun access, we might accidentally reduce suicides" sounds like an upside, not a downside.

ameister14 7y ago
That'd completely be an upside, if the data showed that happened. I don't know that it does. The US has a lower suicide rate than some other developed countries even with guns, and the Americas in general are significantly under Europe in crude rate per capita numbers.
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  Comparing countries against each other gets very sticky, due to differences in reporting. We do, however, have a variety of same-country data demonstrating it happens. Several examples here: https://americanhealth.jhu.edu/article/how-do-gun-laws-affect-suicide-rates https://americanhealth.jhu.edu/article/how-do-gun-laws-affec... IIRC, there's also the factor that attempts with guns tend to be more successful - other methods like pills tend to take longer, be easier to mess up, and offer the ability to renege or have someone intervene in a way guns tend not to.
  - ameister14 7y ago
    Those are interesting. Unfortunately, the only definitive bit shows that CAD laws are likely to lower general suicide rates by about 8% among people age 14-17. That's important, and those laws should probably be enacted in order to make that happen. Unfortunately, laws about the age at which it is legal to purchase or possess a gun show no effect. Basically, if you are allowed to own a gun or not as a child, there's no relationship. The decrease only happens when there is a gun in the home and it is stored properly, where children can't get at it easily. The message I get from that is make guns more difficult to get in times of mental crisis and it will lower the firearm related suicide rate, but not necessarily the general suicide rate outside of that 14-17 age group. Also, the relationship with suicide attempts is likewise sticky, because a lot of suicide attempts are not really a driven attempt to die. Many take a number of pills, for example, then purposefully leave out the pill bottle or tell people prior to the attempt. It's a difficult thing to track in terms of metrics.

throw0101a 7y ago

> the vast majority of deaths by gun are suicides Which can be reduced by restricting access to guns: > The use of firearms is a common means of suicide. We examined the effect of a policy change in the Israeli Defense Forces reducing adolescents’ access to firearms on rates of suicide. Following the policy change, suicide rates decreased significantly by 40%. Most of this decrease was due to decrease in suicide using firearms over the weekend. There were no significant changes in rates of suicide during weekdays. Decreasing access to firearms significantly decreases rates of suicide among adolescents. The results of this study illustrate the ability of a rela- tively simple change in policy to have a major impact on suicide rates. * https://www.gsoa.ch/media/medialibrary/2010/12/Lubin_10.pdf https://www.gsoa.ch/media/medialibrary/2010/12/Lubin_10.pdf Also: > In 1995, Connecticut established a "permit to purchase" law, which required a background check and eight hours of safety training for those seeking to buy a handgun. > Missouri used to have a law like that, too, but repealed it in 2007. > New research shows what happened afterward. Firearm suicide rates fell 15.4 percent in Connecticut — but rose 16.1 percent in Missouri. The study, published in the journal Preventive Medicine, only confirms what other papers have found: Making it harder to access guns correlates with fewer suicides. * https://www.vox.com/2015/9/2/9242147/gun-control-connecticut-suicides https://www.vox.com/2015/9/2/9242147/gun-control-connecticut...

ameister14 7y ago
>New research shows what happened afterward. Firearm suicide rates fell 15.4 percent in Connecticut — but rose 16.1 percent in Missouri. The study, published in the journal Preventive Medicine, only confirms what other papers have found: Making it harder to access guns correlates with fewer suicides. That's a misread of the study - making it harder to access guns does not correlate with fewer suicides - it correlates with fewer Firearm suicides. Further, reading the studies referenced, you will find that they simply show correlation without examining other risk factors. I'm pretty comfortable with the idea that less guns=less shooting, personally, though I know some people disagree with that for some reason. I don't know about less guns=less violence in general, though. That study of the IDF is interesting, especially how they ignore the fact that there was not actually a 40% drop in gun related suicides; there was a 70% drop in suicide by gun, from 10 to 3, and a more general drop from 28 to 16.5 with another 4.5 per capita coming from non-gun related suicide. Despite this, they claim the entire 40% drop was driven by the gun change. This is interesting because it was not the only significant policy change the IDF put in place between 2005 and 2007 in order to address suicide, so it's pretty difficult to claim a direct causal relationship which is what they did. Based on that, you would expect countries with lower rates of gun ownership to have lower adolescent suicide rates, and those with higher rates of gun ownership to have higher adolescent suicide rates. According to the WHO, though, that is not the case. The US, for example, had a below average adolescent suicide rate in 2000, whereas New Zealand, Luxembourg, Ireland, norway, Austria and others had higher than average rates.