4 ms·
Maybe this will come to pass but the market currently does not believe so, at least in the 10 year time frame. A 2030 Oil Futures Contract is priced right aroun
by sseveran 7y ago
Maybe this will come to pass but the market currently does not believe so, at least in the 10 year time frame. A 2030 Oil Futures Contract is priced right around $54 this morning. If we end up in a world where oil is no longer needed, yes some people will lose a bunch of money. But capital is also going to be freed up to invest in new things.
I don't think that anyone thinks the oil industry is the same as 50 years ago. I also don't think there is anyone (on the professional side at least) who does not know that oil companies, specifically the majors, trade with the price of oil. If these are actually unsafe stocks then there is a huge amount of money to be made by betting against them in a variety of ways. I actually don't think it will be as catastrophic as you think since in an such an environment a lot of oil companies in the US would go out of business, or be substantially reorganized. The prices of certain things would increase and maybe alternatives would arise.
If in 30 years we are going to need substantially less oil than we do today, in 10 years we should be starting to see that reflected in the price. So if you really believe that you should be selling long dated futures contracts, or shorting major oil company stocks, or shorting companies specializing in oil transportation, or probably a variety of other things.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]