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See my reply to gnode. But clearly solar/wind should not have been mentioned at all. They are talking about competing with grid electricity in that case, and ma

See my reply to gnode. But clearly solar/wind should not have been mentioned at all. They are talking about competing with grid electricity in that case, and making a very unlikely argument.

Brakenshire 7y ago
Your argument is about today, but the analysis is about 25 years time, i.e. the scale of long term oil investments.
- romaaeterna 7y ago
  My argument was about electric cars displacing gas. I'm curious why you think I'm talking about today, when they are 2% of the current market. As far as the long-term prospect goes, it's very hard to say yet whether electric cars will replace enough of the gas infrastructure to drive down total oil demand. On balance, I think not. If users were especially price conscious about their fuel usage, high-efficiency vehicles would be a bigger share of the market. They aren't. And beyond fuel efficiency, electric vehicles offer consumers very little that gas vehicles do not, and have very serious drawbacks that are unlikely to go away. Given the current state of electric vehicle performance, vanishing tax incentives, and incomplete infrastructure. I think that the American consumer is going to pull back from this 2% dalliance with electric vehicles with its hands badly burned. It might be another generation before they make another attempt at a comeback.
  - Brakenshire 7y ago
    > But gas vehicles remain very competitive against electric vehicles on total cost of ownership, even with oil prices far higher than $20/barrel. This is mostly true but irrelevant, because as I say the linked analysis is about 25 years. > If electric vehicles do fully displace gas vehicles, the article is still wrong, because oil will not be competitive with grid energy even at $20/barrel. That is close to analysis they have done, if anticipated cost reductions for EVs continue over that 25 year period, oil will have to be priced at $9 a barrel to undercut it for that market segment. > Given the current state of electric vehicle performance, vanishing tax incentives, and incomplete infrastructure. I think that the American consumer is going to pull back from this 2% dalliance with electric vehicles with its hands badly burned. Sounds like motivated reasoning, to be honest. People will almost certainly drive what is cheaper, all the more so in America where consumption is high. The mechanisms driving reductions in cost are assisted but not driven by the US market, the transition is happening in the EU and in China, which gives scale, which reduces cost. As that happens, whole classes of vehicles will fall below the equivalent gasoline TCO.
    - romaaeterna 7y ago
      > People will almost certainly drive what is cheaper, all the more so in America where consumption is high. Which is why hybrids and small cars dominate the American market? Fuel consciousness is only one thing driving purchasing decisions, and not the most important. Americans could well decide to continue buying cars that can go on long journeys, don't have costly battery replacement issues, and don't take an hour to refuel at a special station.
      - Brakenshire 7y ago
        They will go for the cheaper option all else being the same. Battery replacement actually isn’t an issue for EVs with good thermal management. There’s already plenty of data out there for Teslas which indicate very few battery problems, no more than the kind of occasional drivetrain failures you get with internal combustion cars. The idea that owners will have to replace batteries as a matter or course was valid for some early and basic cars, but is clearly not an issue any more for most vehicles, and no vehicle at the premium end. Short range and charging is an issue depending on what segment of the market you’re talking about. The current state of the art, which will likely be normal in 5-10 years, is 6 hours of driving for 35 minutes of charging. And, of course, the car starts the day full. That will be a restriction for a part of the market, but you’re claiming 2% is an overextension, which seems manifestly unlikely to me. EV’s have other benefits as well, not least the immediate torque and acceleration, which has previously been a differentiator.

See my reply to gnode. But clearly solar/wind should not have been mentioned at all. They are talking about competing with grid electricity in that case, and making a very unlikely argument.

Brakenshire 7y ago

Your argument is about today, but the analysis is about 25 years time, i.e. the scale of long term oil investments.

romaaeterna 7y ago
My argument was about electric cars displacing gas. I'm curious why you think I'm talking about today, when they are 2% of the current market. As far as the long-term prospect goes, it's very hard to say yet whether electric cars will replace enough of the gas infrastructure to drive down total oil demand. On balance, I think not. If users were especially price conscious about their fuel usage, high-efficiency vehicles would be a bigger share of the market. They aren't. And beyond fuel efficiency, electric vehicles offer consumers very little that gas vehicles do not, and have very serious drawbacks that are unlikely to go away. Given the current state of electric vehicle performance, vanishing tax incentives, and incomplete infrastructure. I think that the American consumer is going to pull back from this 2% dalliance with electric vehicles with its hands badly burned. It might be another generation before they make another attempt at a comeback.
- Brakenshire 7y ago
  > But gas vehicles remain very competitive against electric vehicles on total cost of ownership, even with oil prices far higher than $20/barrel. This is mostly true but irrelevant, because as I say the linked analysis is about 25 years. > If electric vehicles do fully displace gas vehicles, the article is still wrong, because oil will not be competitive with grid energy even at $20/barrel. That is close to analysis they have done, if anticipated cost reductions for EVs continue over that 25 year period, oil will have to be priced at $9 a barrel to undercut it for that market segment. > Given the current state of electric vehicle performance, vanishing tax incentives, and incomplete infrastructure. I think that the American consumer is going to pull back from this 2% dalliance with electric vehicles with its hands badly burned. Sounds like motivated reasoning, to be honest. People will almost certainly drive what is cheaper, all the more so in America where consumption is high. The mechanisms driving reductions in cost are assisted but not driven by the US market, the transition is happening in the EU and in China, which gives scale, which reduces cost. As that happens, whole classes of vehicles will fall below the equivalent gasoline TCO.
  - romaaeterna 7y ago
    > People will almost certainly drive what is cheaper, all the more so in America where consumption is high. Which is why hybrids and small cars dominate the American market? Fuel consciousness is only one thing driving purchasing decisions, and not the most important. Americans could well decide to continue buying cars that can go on long journeys, don't have costly battery replacement issues, and don't take an hour to refuel at a special station.
    - Brakenshire 7y ago
      They will go for the cheaper option all else being the same. Battery replacement actually isn’t an issue for EVs with good thermal management. There’s already plenty of data out there for Teslas which indicate very few battery problems, no more than the kind of occasional drivetrain failures you get with internal combustion cars. The idea that owners will have to replace batteries as a matter or course was valid for some early and basic cars, but is clearly not an issue any more for most vehicles, and no vehicle at the premium end. Short range and charging is an issue depending on what segment of the market you’re talking about. The current state of the art, which will likely be normal in 5-10 years, is 6 hours of driving for 35 minutes of charging. And, of course, the car starts the day full. That will be a restriction for a part of the market, but you’re claiming 2% is an overextension, which seems manifestly unlikely to me. EV’s have other benefits as well, not least the immediate torque and acceleration, which has previously been a differentiator.