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> Under a scenario of total road transport electrification [...] I think 30-year oil investments are relatively safe if this is their threat. I can’t see this

by runeks 7y ago

> Under a scenario of total road transport electrification [...] I think 30-year oil investments are relatively safe if this is their threat. I can’t see this happening in less than 30 years.

ptah 7y ago
only if current levels of subsidies last
dsfyu404ed 7y ago
Yeah. For starters you need some serious grid improvements just about everywhere. That's not a 10yr or 20yr effort because the replacement cycle on most of that equipment is far more than ten or twenty years.
- Brakenshire 7y ago
  The grid is built to handle peak demand, and electric vehicles will mostly be charged off-peak and in particular overnight when there is substantial surplus capacity on the grid, so the need to increase grid capacity will not be as significant as you might think.
  - tialaramex 7y ago
    People tend to assume that 100MWh less energy from oil means 100MWh more electricity for the same transport need, but ICE is horribly inefficient so that's not how it works. Most of the energy in that oil is just wasted, an efficient conversion would be too heavy and expensive for a motor vehicle, and oil is so energy rich you get plenty of performance without bothering.
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    An old NREL report from about 5-10 years ago is floating around somewhere that shows that ~77% of light vehicles (ie cars) in the US can be transitioned to electric without any additional grid generation capacity.
Brakenshire 7y ago
I’d say personally total electrification won’t happen for a long time, if ever, but there will be major markets, notably China and the EU, which are substantially electrified over a 30 year timescale. You also have to bear in mind that electrification is most attractive for vehicles which travel the most distance, and consume the most fuel. Even 20% electrification of the fleet will have a massively outsized impact on oil consumption if it represents all taxis, buses, long distance commuters, road freight, etc. See Bloomberg’s previous research about displacement of fuel from buses: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-19/forget-tesla-it-s-china-s-e-buses-that-are-denting-oil-demand https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-19/forget-te...
- dsfyu404ed 7y ago
  Taxis and buses will be electrified quickly because it makes a lot of sense As long as OTR trucking's primary regulatory irritants are weight and working hours it will resist electrification (unless electric somehow magically becomes so dirt cheap to run that it makes up for the limitations).
  - donkeyd 7y ago
    > irritants are weight and working hours Working hours could actually be beneficial in Europe. Drivers require regular breaks over here. If batteries and chargers can sync with the required break cycle, then there's no reason not to go electric. However, I do think that charging infrastructure will be the main issue, seeing as often tens of trucks will be at the same stop, they'll need a lot of power to get all of them charged within their breaks. Because existing rest stops don't seem located near power lines, that might be a challenge.
olau 7y ago
Are you sure? The total road transport electrification scenario means falling demand for a long time, probably with a relatively steep part somewhere. I would certainly not want to bet on something requiring a thirty-year horizon to be profitable in that kind of market.

by runeks 7y ago

> Under a scenario of total road transport electrification [...] I think 30-year oil investments are relatively safe if this is their threat. I can’t see this happening in less than 30 years.

ptah 7y ago

only if current levels of subsidies last

dsfyu404ed 7y ago

Yeah. For starters you need some serious grid improvements just about everywhere. That's not a 10yr or 20yr effort because the replacement cycle on most of that equipment is far more than ten or twenty years.

Brakenshire 7y ago
The grid is built to handle peak demand, and electric vehicles will mostly be charged off-peak and in particular overnight when there is substantial surplus capacity on the grid, so the need to increase grid capacity will not be as significant as you might think.
- tialaramex 7y ago
  People tend to assume that 100MWh less energy from oil means 100MWh more electricity for the same transport need, but ICE is horribly inefficient so that's not how it works. Most of the energy in that oil is just wasted, an efficient conversion would be too heavy and expensive for a motor vehicle, and oil is so energy rich you get plenty of performance without bothering.
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  An old NREL report from about 5-10 years ago is floating around somewhere that shows that ~77% of light vehicles (ie cars) in the US can be transitioned to electric without any additional grid generation capacity.

Brakenshire 7y ago

I’d say personally total electrification won’t happen for a long time, if ever, but there will be major markets, notably China and the EU, which are substantially electrified over a 30 year timescale. You also have to bear in mind that electrification is most attractive for vehicles which travel the most distance, and consume the most fuel. Even 20% electrification of the fleet will have a massively outsized impact on oil consumption if it represents all taxis, buses, long distance commuters, road freight, etc. See Bloomberg’s previous research about displacement of fuel from buses: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-19/forget-tesla-it-s-china-s-e-buses-that-are-denting-oil-demand https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-19/forget-te...

dsfyu404ed 7y ago
Taxis and buses will be electrified quickly because it makes a lot of sense As long as OTR trucking's primary regulatory irritants are weight and working hours it will resist electrification (unless electric somehow magically becomes so dirt cheap to run that it makes up for the limitations).
- donkeyd 7y ago
  > irritants are weight and working hours Working hours could actually be beneficial in Europe. Drivers require regular breaks over here. If batteries and chargers can sync with the required break cycle, then there's no reason not to go electric. However, I do think that charging infrastructure will be the main issue, seeing as often tens of trucks will be at the same stop, they'll need a lot of power to get all of them charged within their breaks. Because existing rest stops don't seem located near power lines, that might be a challenge.

olau 7y ago

Are you sure? The total road transport electrification scenario means falling demand for a long time, probably with a relatively steep part somewhere. I would certainly not want to bet on something requiring a thirty-year horizon to be profitable in that kind of market.