According to https://history.aip.org/climate/simple.htm https://history.aip.org/climate/simple.htm, a region of dark terrain or water getting warmer was first s

According to https://history.aip.org/climate/simple.htm https://history.aip.org/climate/simple.htm, a region of dark terrain or water getting warmer was first suggested in 1875 by James Croll. The linked paper (PDF at http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/papers/Pistone-Eisenman-Ramanathan-2019.pdf http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/papers/Pistone-Eisenman-Ramanathan-... ) is trying to quantitatively "estimate the additional solar heating that would occur under the complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice", in their own words, and compare this figure to a certain amount of carbon emissions. Their results are pretty worrying. Quoting again: "This heating of 0.71 W/m2 is approximately equivalent to the direct radiative effect of emitting one trillion tons of CO2into the atmosphere (see calculation in Appendix A). As of 2016, an estimated 2.4 trillion tons of CO2 have been emitted since the preindustrial period due to both fossil fuel combustion (1.54 trillion tons) and land use changes (0.82 trillion tons), with an additional 40 billion tons of CO2 per year emitted from these sources during 2007–2016 (Le Quéré et al., 2018). Thus, the additional warming due to the complete loss of Arctic sea ice would be equivalent to 25 years of global CO2 emissions at the current rate. This implies that if the Arctic sea ice were to disappear much more rapidly than in current climate model projections, it would drastically shorten the time available to adapt to climate changes and the time for achieving carbon neutrality."