Any given unlikely event does not happen very often. But if you have a whole bunch of possible unlikely events, then one of them (a different one each time, us

Any given unlikely event does not happen very often. But if you have a whole bunch of possible unlikely events, then one of them (a different one each time, usually) can happen fairly often. Back to the lightning example, any given person being hit by lightning is an unlikely event. But as you not "someone being hit by lightning" is not, because we are now observing these unlikely events across so many people. All of which is to say, observing that an unlikely event happened doesn't provide much information on its own, if you have observed a lot of things happening in general...