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Taking 50/50 as a prior indicates that you don't know the true prevalence of C. Note that here 0.9 is not a probability, but rather a degree of belief. In this
by mike_ivanov 7y ago
Taking 50/50 as a prior indicates that you don't know the true prevalence of C.
Note that here 0.9 is not a probability, but rather a degree of belief. In this concrete example it tells you how much you should be worried upon observing R. If the prevalence of C is unknown (even if C is actually rare!), then given a positive R one should be worried a lot, which is exactly what 0.9 says.
Also note the language change and its implications for policy making, etc: Instead of saying "there is [not enough] evidence that .." we say "given the observations and these assumptions we should [not] believe/expect that .."
- afthonos 7y agoAll of this is true. I was writing to mainly illustrate that Bayesian analysis is still open to abuse—though as the sibling commenter says, it's hopefully clearer when it's being abused.