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Hmmm..., I remember the Macintosh’s slow death to the PC in the late 1980’s and 1990s. I think you should probably look more closely at the iPhone’s global mar

Hmmm..., I remember the Macintosh’s slow death to the PC in the late 1980’s and 1990s. I think you should probably look more closely at the iPhone’s global market share. Developers will support the larger, more profitable markets first. At some point, they’ll stop supporting the shrinking market. https://appleinsider.com/articles/19/07/31/iphones-global-marketshare-dips-to-101-amid-rise-of-samsung-chinese-brands https://appleinsider.com/articles/19/07/31/iphones-global-ma...

elygre 7y ago
Developers will support multiple markets, the same way that car companies deliver cars with the steering wheel on the wrong (i.e. right) side of the car for those comparably small markets.
- melling 7y ago
  I guess I wasn’t clear on this point. “At some point, they’ll stop supporting the shrinking market.” If the market is profitable, they’ll support it. However, as the Macintosh market shrank in the 1990s, for example, some developers fled. Also, great iPhone only apps will try to capture part of the larger Android market. As more revenue comes from Android, that’ll be their primary market. Read this story about Steve Jobs and Adobe. It might give you a better idea about what I’m trying to convey: https://www.businessinsider.com/the-real-reason-steve-jobs-wants-to-kill-adobe-2010-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/the-real-reason-steve-jobs-w...
rconti 7y ago
Declining sales != declining install market share
- ksec 7y ago
  The problem is No Newspaper actually write the word Declining Sales, they all use the word marketshares, where it means unit / revenue in the total market during a period of time. As a matter of fact Tim Cook mentioned in the Investor Q&A that iPhone User base has been growing in all of their Operating Segment. ( The word Operation was chosen likely because Apple doesn't actually operate in India, where it has declining usage ). The last reported Active iPhone users were 900M nearly 10 months ago. Apple are highly likely to reach 1B Active iPhone user sometime in 2020.
lunchables 7y ago
Now look at the revenue per device that is generated for developers. https://themanifest.com/app-development/android-vs-ios-which-platform-build-your-app-first https://themanifest.com/app-development/android-vs-ios-which... Not only is it easier to build and maintain apps for iOS, people spend a lot more money on that platform. That Android market share is, in large part, driven by developing nations that aren't going to spend a lot of money on buying software on their mobile devices. That could certainly change in the future, but I just want to illustrate why just talking about the number of devices might not be the best indicator for which platform you should develop applications.
photojosh 7y ago
That was as the market was growing. Once it saturated (late 90s?), Apple's held a fairly small, but also reasonably constant proportion IIRC. We're seeing the same thing happen in phones; the developed world's market is saturated now and the rate of turnover is slowing, and Apple doesn't have pricing that competes in the developing world. The point I'd disagree with in your comment is that you say "larger, more profitable" when those two don't necessarily go together. Samsung and Chinese vendors are not making more profit than Apple anytime soon.

elygre 7y ago

Developers will support multiple markets, the same way that car companies deliver cars with the steering wheel on the wrong (i.e. right) side of the car for those comparably small markets.

melling 7y ago
I guess I wasn’t clear on this point. “At some point, they’ll stop supporting the shrinking market.” If the market is profitable, they’ll support it. However, as the Macintosh market shrank in the 1990s, for example, some developers fled. Also, great iPhone only apps will try to capture part of the larger Android market. As more revenue comes from Android, that’ll be their primary market. Read this story about Steve Jobs and Adobe. It might give you a better idea about what I’m trying to convey: https://www.businessinsider.com/the-real-reason-steve-jobs-wants-to-kill-adobe-2010-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/the-real-reason-steve-jobs-w...

rconti 7y ago

Declining sales != declining install market share

ksec 7y ago
The problem is No Newspaper actually write the word Declining Sales, they all use the word marketshares, where it means unit / revenue in the total market during a period of time. As a matter of fact Tim Cook mentioned in the Investor Q&A that iPhone User base has been growing in all of their Operating Segment. ( The word Operation was chosen likely because Apple doesn't actually operate in India, where it has declining usage ). The last reported Active iPhone users were 900M nearly 10 months ago. Apple are highly likely to reach 1B Active iPhone user sometime in 2020.

lunchables 7y ago

Now look at the revenue per device that is generated for developers. https://themanifest.com/app-development/android-vs-ios-which-platform-build-your-app-first https://themanifest.com/app-development/android-vs-ios-which... Not only is it easier to build and maintain apps for iOS, people spend a lot more money on that platform. That Android market share is, in large part, driven by developing nations that aren't going to spend a lot of money on buying software on their mobile devices. That could certainly change in the future, but I just want to illustrate why just talking about the number of devices might not be the best indicator for which platform you should develop applications.

photojosh 7y ago

That was as the market was growing. Once it saturated (late 90s?), Apple's held a fairly small, but also reasonably constant proportion IIRC. We're seeing the same thing happen in phones; the developed world's market is saturated now and the rate of turnover is slowing, and Apple doesn't have pricing that competes in the developing world. The point I'd disagree with in your comment is that you say "larger, more profitable" when those two don't necessarily go together. Samsung and Chinese vendors are not making more profit than Apple anytime soon.