3 ms·
"Probability-wise I just mean there's a 2/8 chance that it's one of these pawns" Unless I misunderstood the concept somehow, your calculation seems to be, as t
by V-2 7y ago
"Probability-wise I just mean there's a 2/8 chance that it's one of these pawns"
Unless I misunderstood the concept somehow, your calculation seems to be, as the great GM Finegold would put it, "incorrect!"
How many ways are there to pick 2 pawns out of 8? (8x7)/2, or 28. How many ways are there to pick 2 pawns out of 6? (6x5)/2, or 15.
In other words, there are 28 combinations in total, and only 15 combinations where NEITHER of the 2 crucial pawns is an assassin.
This means the actual probability is (28-15)/28, or 13/28, or about 46% (rather than 25%).
Let's do a sanity check. "Safe" combinations:
ab ac ae ag ah
bc be bg bh
ce cg ch
eg eh
gh
15.
"Unsafe" combinations:
ad af
bd bf
cd cf
de df dg dh
ef
fg fh
13.
Yup, math works out.
- nwallin 7y agoThat's not the setup. You don't have two assassins, you just have one assassin, so it's not 8 pick 2. But there are two squares the assassin can be on that give a move 1 mate. That gives the 2/8.
- thom 7y agoYeah this is what I’m picturing, although I’m all for creative misinterpretations!