7 ms·

If the £1bn investment from Jaguar-Land Rover IS included, then investment is on a par with 2017 and better than 2018. Also, this is the real story: Spoiler:

by spants 7y ago

If the £1bn investment from Jaguar-Land Rover IS included, then investment is on a par with 2017 and better than 2018. Also, this is the real story: Spoiler: It's not Brexit https://www.businessinsider.com/automobile-car-industry-production-global-recession-2019-2?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/automobile-car-industry-prod...

dpwm 7y ago
If not to do with brexit, why are three of the six examples in the UK? It's disproportionately represented.
ptah 7y ago
it will count toward the subsequent six months figures
kalekold 7y ago
The BBC is notoriously biased against Brexit.
- johneth 7y ago
  Reality is notoriously biased against Brexit.
  - krona 7y ago
    Except in reality, Brexit hasn't actually happened.
    - gambiting 7y ago
      Ok, what name would you use for this 3-year long period between the vote and the planned exit date where the damage is already being done as a result of the brexit vote?
      - benj111 7y ago
        Purgatory.
    - boudin 7y ago
      It stills has an impact on investment. Having no visibility around the future relationship between the UK and all the countries around the UK is not that great for planning...
- pjc50 7y ago
  If anything they've been pro-Brexit for years in inviting Farage on to talk far more than any other minor party figure, especially one who's not an MP.
  - growlist 7y ago
    Statistics about the Remain/Leave make up of panels on Question Time, Politics Live etc. say otherwise.
    - pjc50 7y ago
      Should the BBC have a 50/50 balance of flat earth/round earth people on TV?
      - growlist 7y ago
        So for you 17.4m voters are equivalent to flat earthers then? Deary me.
        pjc50 7y ago
        Yes? They were promised that the flat earth would deliver £350m for the NHS.
        growlist 7y ago
        That was ruled by a court of law to have been accurate. And how do you know they all voted specifically due to that? You don't.
- tonyedgecombe 7y ago
  Not from what I've seen, they have had a stream of people promoting Brexit going unchallenged.
ealexhudson 7y ago
You can't compare total annual industry investment to a single manufacturer project cost. JLR are not going to be investing £1bn in a single year; and they've just been handed a £500M loan guarantee - if stuff doesn't work out, the taxpayer will be holding a significant chunk of the bag. You can certainly argue that Brexit isn't the sole cause, but it's definitely a large factor. While the overall market for cars is declining, the switch from ICE to electric should actually stoke demand. Some of the most productive car manufacturing plants in the EU are located in the UK and either being closed or are in danger of closing; if Brexit played no part then it would make no fiscal sense to close British plants.
imeron 7y ago
I guess Brexit is a great blame if you want to close a factory. Even-though, after-Brexit UK won't be part of the EU. A UK factory will export cars to the EU with mandatory customs fee and taxes. If your cars have to clear customs anyway why not build them in Ukraine?
- tonyedgecombe 7y ago
  Actually I think most companies are going out of their way to avoid blaming Brexit. No point in alienating 52% of the UK market even if it is the case.
- benj111 7y ago
  If you look at the case of Japan, they've just signed a free trade agreement with the EU, so at the same time barriers are going down there, barriers are going up in the UK. Given that the Japanese car companies only came to the UK to access the single market, why would they stay now that Japan is 'closer'?
- toyg 7y ago
  Most of the companies actually don't mention Brexit in public communications, because they are trying to avoid alienating the government (as much as half their UK customers). They were hoping to have the public purse cover their trouble and continue with business as usual. In the end, only Jaguar-LandRover (arguably the more "British" manufacturer) seems to have partially managed to pull that off with a 500m loan; everyone else (even Nissan, who supposedly got some guarantees in writing from the previous administration) decided it's not worth the trouble and is in the process of slowly divesting.
- Zenst 7y ago
  Indeed, brexit (though America don't call independence day Amexit!) for many hasn't happened and what we have is a case of still being in the EU and many trying to chuck everything in the way to keep us there. So really it's more how the leave process is being derailed left and left-again, that has and does cause the issue. After all, until it happens, everything is based upon perception and pushing a doom picture utterly suits those who wish to not leave the EU. Put another way, nobody blamed joining the EU for the demise of way more manufacturing and indeed the coal industry. Yet that is what happened. Cheaper EU coal imports, then eventual erosion of manufacturing bit by bit. But that gets overlooked oddly enough. Still the UK shifted from manufacturing to services, albeit many EU trade deals and indeed their own members, kinda fall foul in how they handle services with the EU actually looking at punishing members for not opening up their services market. But in fairness, whilst the EU is not perfect - nothing is perfect.
toyg 7y ago
The two things (brexit and sector problems) compound. Without Brexit, a sector crisis might have resulted in one company closing a UK plant and another closing a plant elsewhere, weighting specific pros and cons case-by-case. With Brexit, they both close a UK plant, because it’s now a no-brainer. The UK after Brexit will have high labor costs AND high tariffs on goods’ movement. There is almost no reason to manufacture here. Brexit is a massive hole in the UK appeal for manufacturing that targets the EU market. This is a hard fact. Everything else is wishful thinking.
- krona 7y ago
  Given the exchange rate over the past 25 years, it's quite remarkable that the UK has any manufacturing base whatsoever.
  - toyg 7y ago
    Indeed, it almost doesn’t. Before Brexit, the sector was constantly crying for help; the car industry itself almost disappeared in the ‘80s, before the government explicitly targeted it. When Jeremy Corbyn was elected leader of the opposition Labour party, pre-Brexit referendum, one of his main rallying cries was about rebuilding a real manufacturing sector; there is almost no word of that anymore, unsurprisingly - now it’s all about maintaining current levels of economic activity, which we’ll be lucky to do.
  - pjc50 7y ago
    The UK's remaining manufacturing is high value-add, and much of it is also on a smaller scale than mass car production. The UK satellite industry does very well, for example. We need to appreciate what our real strengths and weaknesses are, and huge armies of semi-skilled workers assembling things are not going to be one of them.
- benj111 7y ago
  "The UK after Brexit will have high labor costs" If/when the £ goes down the toilet (even more) labour will be cheap.
MagnumOpus 7y ago
(a) 2017 and 2018 were also post-brexit-referendum years with investments getting pulled left and right (b) The £1bn will be spread over many years, almost none of it this year. (c) Low global car demand leads to reduced investment. The investments that get cut first are the ones where labour is already expensive, skilled labour is about to get much harder to get and supply chains are about to be screwed up massively. Guess where that is.
pmontra 7y ago
When things turn ugly the weakest suffer the most. With the Brexit, hard or soft, the UK is positioning itself as a weaker country than it was inside the EU. If the car industry is going to suffer, it's going to suffer more in the UK than in the EU. Obviously it could turn out that Brexit will be good for the UK, but IMHO not in the immediate future. It will take time.
- growlist 7y ago
  I think plenty of people that voted Leave put other concerns - identity, sovereignty, community etc - above the strictly economic. And why shouldn't they? We don't only live for money, do we?
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - dsfyu404ed 7y ago
    I agree with you in principal but Brexit wasn't a direct economics vs sovereignty trade-off. It's not clear that the UK will actually benefit in the categories you mentioned as a result of Brexit.
    - growlist 7y ago
      I'm not arguing on the rationality or otherwise, just saying that the dry economic arguments aren't necessarily the ones that have traction with voters. I don't think that's a controversial thing to say. On those other issues I would say it's more subtle, in that leaving the EU at least opens the door to genuine controls on migration, for example, but the major parties are united in their refusal to offer the choice to the public.
      - pjc50 7y ago
        > genuine controls on migration Can you be extremely clear on what you mean by this, and what you expect to achieve by restricting migration of EU nationals to the UK and UK nationals to the EU? And also acknowledge that the UK's controls on non-EU migration are extremely onerous and not a matter of EU policy?
onion2k 7y ago
That investment is actually a loan backed by the British government to the tune of £500m - https://www.am-online.com/news/manufacturer/2019/07/16/jlr-s-ev-production-plans-underwritten-by-uk-taxypayers https://www.am-online.com/news/manufacturer/2019/07/16/jlr-s... - in other words, it's less an investment by a company that believes in investing in the UK but rather the government buying some good news. Without government stumping up the loan guarantee it wouldn't have happened.

by spants 7y ago

dpwm 7y ago

If not to do with brexit, why are three of the six examples in the UK? It's disproportionately represented.

ptah 7y ago

it will count toward the subsequent six months figures

kalekold 7y ago

The BBC is notoriously biased against Brexit.

johneth 7y ago
Reality is notoriously biased against Brexit.
- krona 7y ago
  Except in reality, Brexit hasn't actually happened.
  - gambiting 7y ago
    Ok, what name would you use for this 3-year long period between the vote and the planned exit date where the damage is already being done as a result of the brexit vote?
    - benj111 7y ago
      Purgatory.
  - boudin 7y ago
    It stills has an impact on investment. Having no visibility around the future relationship between the UK and all the countries around the UK is not that great for planning...
pjc50 7y ago
If anything they've been pro-Brexit for years in inviting Farage on to talk far more than any other minor party figure, especially one who's not an MP.
- growlist 7y ago
  Statistics about the Remain/Leave make up of panels on Question Time, Politics Live etc. say otherwise.
  - pjc50 7y ago
    Should the BBC have a 50/50 balance of flat earth/round earth people on TV?
    - growlist 7y ago
      So for you 17.4m voters are equivalent to flat earthers then? Deary me.
      - pjc50 7y ago
        Yes? They were promised that the flat earth would deliver £350m for the NHS.
        growlist 7y ago
        That was ruled by a court of law to have been accurate. And how do you know they all voted specifically due to that? You don't.
tonyedgecombe 7y ago
Not from what I've seen, they have had a stream of people promoting Brexit going unchallenged.

ealexhudson 7y ago

You can't compare total annual industry investment to a single manufacturer project cost. JLR are not going to be investing £1bn in a single year; and they've just been handed a £500M loan guarantee - if stuff doesn't work out, the taxpayer will be holding a significant chunk of the bag. You can certainly argue that Brexit isn't the sole cause, but it's definitely a large factor. While the overall market for cars is declining, the switch from ICE to electric should actually stoke demand. Some of the most productive car manufacturing plants in the EU are located in the UK and either being closed or are in danger of closing; if Brexit played no part then it would make no fiscal sense to close British plants.

imeron 7y ago

I guess Brexit is a great blame if you want to close a factory. Even-though, after-Brexit UK won't be part of the EU. A UK factory will export cars to the EU with mandatory customs fee and taxes. If your cars have to clear customs anyway why not build them in Ukraine?

tonyedgecombe 7y ago
Actually I think most companies are going out of their way to avoid blaming Brexit. No point in alienating 52% of the UK market even if it is the case.
benj111 7y ago
If you look at the case of Japan, they've just signed a free trade agreement with the EU, so at the same time barriers are going down there, barriers are going up in the UK. Given that the Japanese car companies only came to the UK to access the single market, why would they stay now that Japan is 'closer'?
toyg 7y ago
Most of the companies actually don't mention Brexit in public communications, because they are trying to avoid alienating the government (as much as half their UK customers). They were hoping to have the public purse cover their trouble and continue with business as usual. In the end, only Jaguar-LandRover (arguably the more "British" manufacturer) seems to have partially managed to pull that off with a 500m loan; everyone else (even Nissan, who supposedly got some guarantees in writing from the previous administration) decided it's not worth the trouble and is in the process of slowly divesting.
Zenst 7y ago
Indeed, brexit (though America don't call independence day Amexit!) for many hasn't happened and what we have is a case of still being in the EU and many trying to chuck everything in the way to keep us there. So really it's more how the leave process is being derailed left and left-again, that has and does cause the issue. After all, until it happens, everything is based upon perception and pushing a doom picture utterly suits those who wish to not leave the EU. Put another way, nobody blamed joining the EU for the demise of way more manufacturing and indeed the coal industry. Yet that is what happened. Cheaper EU coal imports, then eventual erosion of manufacturing bit by bit. But that gets overlooked oddly enough. Still the UK shifted from manufacturing to services, albeit many EU trade deals and indeed their own members, kinda fall foul in how they handle services with the EU actually looking at punishing members for not opening up their services market. But in fairness, whilst the EU is not perfect - nothing is perfect.

toyg 7y ago

The two things (brexit and sector problems) compound. Without Brexit, a sector crisis might have resulted in one company closing a UK plant and another closing a plant elsewhere, weighting specific pros and cons case-by-case. With Brexit, they both close a UK plant, because it’s now a no-brainer. The UK after Brexit will have high labor costs AND high tariffs on goods’ movement. There is almost no reason to manufacture here. Brexit is a massive hole in the UK appeal for manufacturing that targets the EU market. This is a hard fact. Everything else is wishful thinking.

krona 7y ago
Given the exchange rate over the past 25 years, it's quite remarkable that the UK has any manufacturing base whatsoever.
- toyg 7y ago
  Indeed, it almost doesn’t. Before Brexit, the sector was constantly crying for help; the car industry itself almost disappeared in the ‘80s, before the government explicitly targeted it. When Jeremy Corbyn was elected leader of the opposition Labour party, pre-Brexit referendum, one of his main rallying cries was about rebuilding a real manufacturing sector; there is almost no word of that anymore, unsurprisingly - now it’s all about maintaining current levels of economic activity, which we’ll be lucky to do.
- pjc50 7y ago
  The UK's remaining manufacturing is high value-add, and much of it is also on a smaller scale than mass car production. The UK satellite industry does very well, for example. We need to appreciate what our real strengths and weaknesses are, and huge armies of semi-skilled workers assembling things are not going to be one of them.
benj111 7y ago
"The UK after Brexit will have high labor costs" If/when the £ goes down the toilet (even more) labour will be cheap.

MagnumOpus 7y ago

(a) 2017 and 2018 were also post-brexit-referendum years with investments getting pulled left and right (b) The £1bn will be spread over many years, almost none of it this year. (c) Low global car demand leads to reduced investment. The investments that get cut first are the ones where labour is already expensive, skilled labour is about to get much harder to get and supply chains are about to be screwed up massively. Guess where that is.

pmontra 7y ago

When things turn ugly the weakest suffer the most. With the Brexit, hard or soft, the UK is positioning itself as a weaker country than it was inside the EU. If the car industry is going to suffer, it's going to suffer more in the UK than in the EU. Obviously it could turn out that Brexit will be good for the UK, but IMHO not in the immediate future. It will take time.

growlist 7y ago
I think plenty of people that voted Leave put other concerns - identity, sovereignty, community etc - above the strictly economic. And why shouldn't they? We don't only live for money, do we?
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- dsfyu404ed 7y ago
  I agree with you in principal but Brexit wasn't a direct economics vs sovereignty trade-off. It's not clear that the UK will actually benefit in the categories you mentioned as a result of Brexit.
  - growlist 7y ago
    I'm not arguing on the rationality or otherwise, just saying that the dry economic arguments aren't necessarily the ones that have traction with voters. I don't think that's a controversial thing to say. On those other issues I would say it's more subtle, in that leaving the EU at least opens the door to genuine controls on migration, for example, but the major parties are united in their refusal to offer the choice to the public.
    - pjc50 7y ago
      > genuine controls on migration Can you be extremely clear on what you mean by this, and what you expect to achieve by restricting migration of EU nationals to the UK and UK nationals to the EU? And also acknowledge that the UK's controls on non-EU migration are extremely onerous and not a matter of EU policy?

onion2k 7y ago

That investment is actually a loan backed by the British government to the tune of £500m - https://www.am-online.com/news/manufacturer/2019/07/16/jlr-s-ev-production-plans-underwritten-by-uk-taxypayers https://www.am-online.com/news/manufacturer/2019/07/16/jlr-s... - in other words, it's less an investment by a company that believes in investing in the UK but rather the government buying some good news. Without government stumping up the loan guarantee it wouldn't have happened.