6 ms·

the main argument against tablets (bad software that actively interferes with usability) is going away. The market for tablets that are basically just laptops

the main argument against tablets (bad software that actively interferes with usability) is going away. The market for tablets that are basically just laptops with a different form factor remains what it was before the ipad: small. the market for a tablet that is easy to hop on the couch with and surf for casual content is huge.

joeguilmette 16y ago
80-90% of computer users never leave the browser. The tablet will take over. Everything except power users will be using tablets in 5 years.
- Xuzz 16y ago
  Assuming you count iTunes and Microsoft Office as part of the browser, which isn't really that much of a stretch. (However, he iTunes Store is a browser (possibly still using their proprietary/strange markup language), and for many (if not most) tasks Google Docs or Microsoft's offering is good enough.)
  - joeguilmette 16y ago
    And you can open .docs on iPad very very easily and edit them with an app that costs 1/10th of MS Office, if not for free with Google Docs.
- ugh 16y ago
  That seems a bit too optimistic (pessimistic?) to me. I would predict that more than two-thirds of households will have a tablet in five years. I can see tablets replacing kitchen or living room laptops that have become so common in the last years, I can’t see them replacing the office PC, at least not in five years. PCs (~ $800) and tablets (~ $500) are cheap enough to co-exist. I don’t think it was that long ago when you paid $1300 for one desktop PC.
  - joeguilmette 16y ago
    I think a $199 wifi iPad 1 is a few months away. The user experience on such a device will knock the socks off a similarly priced net book. I believe you're right about the desktop in the office though. The fact that XP is still commonplace in offices goes to show the staying power of the form factor in that setting. I mean, the design of most cubicle farms alone is more suited for desktops than tablets.
- axod 16y ago
  80-90% of websites use keyboard as an input mechanism. I'm not seeing why a tablet is so massively better than a netbook/laptop.
  - guywithabike 16y ago
    What's your source for that statistic? Or did you just make it up?
    - joeguilmette 16y ago
      96% of statistics are made up.
      - foljs 16y ago
        Actually, that's 93%.
  - spa942 16y ago
    A lot of people were not seeing that, which is probably why Apple was able to launch a 10" $500 tablet without any competitors in the market.
    - axod 16y ago
      It's still a rich persons toy though, or bought as an additional computer rather than to replace something else. I don't see it going mainstream, or replacing laptops.
  - Xuzz 16y ago
    How much input do you actually do on these websites? Facebook, for a major example, is just a sentence or two for each status update, and a word or two for the chat messages.
    - axod 16y ago
      a laptop isn't the way it is just to house a keyboard. It's that way so you can sit it on your lap with the screen positioned to view it. I'm not gonna hold a tablet in my hands while I try and use it. (I spend the vast majority of my time sat on a sofa with a laptop).
- samstokes 16y ago
  I assume you (reasonably) count webmail as "not leaving the browser". Typing emails (or Facebook messages or whatever) is much more pleasant on a real keyboard than on a virtual touch-screen keyboard. Seems unlikely people are going to give up typing in droves. What does seem quite plausible is tablet + peripherals - the tablet basically assuming the role of the old mini-tower computer, angled upright on a stand for desktop use, with keyboard and mouse hanging off it. (In fact if you also hung a monitor off it there's no reason you couldn't do that with a regular phone.) I think tablet + dock + keyboard may well become a popular home computer setup in the next few years.
  - joeguilmette 16y ago
    Almost every single Facebook comment and status update made in the past two years has been from an iPhone or iPad. Every comment made in this thread has been from my iPad. Almost all of my email is sent from my iPad, and I write a lot of email. I send vastly more email from iOS than OSX/XP/W7. I use all four operating systems between my personal and work machines, and prefer iOS for almost all tasks. Touchscreen typing is weird at first, but, just like using a physical keyboard you start slow and eventually become proficient and comfortable.
Xuzz 16y ago
(Unless you claim that Android is "bad software that actively interferes with usability" (because it doesn't officially support tablets yet, or has custom skins, or isn't integrated, or whatever), which the author seems to be, in a sense, saying. I'm not sure if I agree or not.)
- joeguilmette 16y ago
  I would say that while popular, Android on the whole is 'bad software' the same way Windows is. Doesn't mean it wont dominate the market.
  - deleted 16y ago
    [deleted]
  - ugh 16y ago
    I would argue that Android is currently not in a position to dominate the tablet market in the short term. It’s worse for tablets than Windows was for PCs and it has to (and undoubtedly will) improve in that respect this year. (It was not supposed to run on tablets so you can’t really hold that against Google.) All Android tablets I tried felt like upscaled phones, they use more or less the same phone UI on a bigger screen. That’s just unattractive, why carry around that huge device when using a phone is approximately as comfortable? Tablets have to be more comfortable to use than phones. iOS makes better use of the additional real estate and using it is more fun than using a phone. It’s not just a huge iPod touch.
    - enjo 16y ago
      That's the entire point of Honeycomb. It's too provide native support for tablet interfaces. *edit: native support for native interfaces doesn't make any sense:)
    - Pewpewarrows 16y ago
      > It’s not just a huge iPod touch. Yes, it is. The only difference you're seeing is that developers for iOS apps have accommodated for the additional screen real estate after its release. Developers of Android apps haven't yet because the OS isn't officially ready for tablets until Honeycomb. Once an official Android tablet is released post-Honeycomb can you actually start to make comparisons.

joeguilmette 16y ago

80-90% of computer users never leave the browser. The tablet will take over. Everything except power users will be using tablets in 5 years.

Xuzz 16y ago
Assuming you count iTunes and Microsoft Office as part of the browser, which isn't really that much of a stretch. (However, he iTunes Store is a browser (possibly still using their proprietary/strange markup language), and for many (if not most) tasks Google Docs or Microsoft's offering is good enough.)
- joeguilmette 16y ago
  And you can open .docs on iPad very very easily and edit them with an app that costs 1/10th of MS Office, if not for free with Google Docs.
ugh 16y ago
That seems a bit too optimistic (pessimistic?) to me. I would predict that more than two-thirds of households will have a tablet in five years. I can see tablets replacing kitchen or living room laptops that have become so common in the last years, I can’t see them replacing the office PC, at least not in five years. PCs (~ $800) and tablets (~ $500) are cheap enough to co-exist. I don’t think it was that long ago when you paid $1300 for one desktop PC.
- joeguilmette 16y ago
  I think a $199 wifi iPad 1 is a few months away. The user experience on such a device will knock the socks off a similarly priced net book. I believe you're right about the desktop in the office though. The fact that XP is still commonplace in offices goes to show the staying power of the form factor in that setting. I mean, the design of most cubicle farms alone is more suited for desktops than tablets.
axod 16y ago
80-90% of websites use keyboard as an input mechanism. I'm not seeing why a tablet is so massively better than a netbook/laptop.
- guywithabike 16y ago
  What's your source for that statistic? Or did you just make it up?
  - joeguilmette 16y ago
    96% of statistics are made up.
    - foljs 16y ago
      Actually, that's 93%.
- spa942 16y ago
  A lot of people were not seeing that, which is probably why Apple was able to launch a 10" $500 tablet without any competitors in the market.
  - axod 16y ago
    It's still a rich persons toy though, or bought as an additional computer rather than to replace something else. I don't see it going mainstream, or replacing laptops.
- Xuzz 16y ago
  How much input do you actually do on these websites? Facebook, for a major example, is just a sentence or two for each status update, and a word or two for the chat messages.
  - axod 16y ago
    a laptop isn't the way it is just to house a keyboard. It's that way so you can sit it on your lap with the screen positioned to view it. I'm not gonna hold a tablet in my hands while I try and use it. (I spend the vast majority of my time sat on a sofa with a laptop).
samstokes 16y ago
I assume you (reasonably) count webmail as "not leaving the browser". Typing emails (or Facebook messages or whatever) is much more pleasant on a real keyboard than on a virtual touch-screen keyboard. Seems unlikely people are going to give up typing in droves. What does seem quite plausible is tablet + peripherals - the tablet basically assuming the role of the old mini-tower computer, angled upright on a stand for desktop use, with keyboard and mouse hanging off it. (In fact if you also hung a monitor off it there's no reason you couldn't do that with a regular phone.) I think tablet + dock + keyboard may well become a popular home computer setup in the next few years.
- joeguilmette 16y ago
  Almost every single Facebook comment and status update made in the past two years has been from an iPhone or iPad. Every comment made in this thread has been from my iPad. Almost all of my email is sent from my iPad, and I write a lot of email. I send vastly more email from iOS than OSX/XP/W7. I use all four operating systems between my personal and work machines, and prefer iOS for almost all tasks. Touchscreen typing is weird at first, but, just like using a physical keyboard you start slow and eventually become proficient and comfortable.

Xuzz 16y ago

(Unless you claim that Android is "bad software that actively interferes with usability" (because it doesn't officially support tablets yet, or has custom skins, or isn't integrated, or whatever), which the author seems to be, in a sense, saying. I'm not sure if I agree or not.)

joeguilmette 16y ago
I would say that while popular, Android on the whole is 'bad software' the same way Windows is. Doesn't mean it wont dominate the market.
- deleted 16y ago
  [deleted]
- ugh 16y ago
  I would argue that Android is currently not in a position to dominate the tablet market in the short term. It’s worse for tablets than Windows was for PCs and it has to (and undoubtedly will) improve in that respect this year. (It was not supposed to run on tablets so you can’t really hold that against Google.) All Android tablets I tried felt like upscaled phones, they use more or less the same phone UI on a bigger screen. That’s just unattractive, why carry around that huge device when using a phone is approximately as comfortable? Tablets have to be more comfortable to use than phones. iOS makes better use of the additional real estate and using it is more fun than using a phone. It’s not just a huge iPod touch.
  - enjo 16y ago
    That's the entire point of Honeycomb. It's too provide native support for tablet interfaces. *edit: native support for native interfaces doesn't make any sense:)
  - Pewpewarrows 16y ago
    > It’s not just a huge iPod touch. Yes, it is. The only difference you're seeing is that developers for iOS apps have accommodated for the additional screen real estate after its release. Developers of Android apps haven't yet because the OS isn't officially ready for tablets until Honeycomb. Once an official Android tablet is released post-Honeycomb can you actually start to make comparisons.