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This seems similar to events during the Cold War. The majority of the West's major miscalculations occurred because they were evaluating Soviet responses throu
by ethbro 7y ago
This seems similar to events during the Cold War.
The majority of the West's major miscalculations occurred because they were evaluating Soviet responses through a democratic political lense.
When a fall from power means a firing squad (though less so now) or labor camp and total asset seizure, political calculus changes substantially.
If Xi's grip on power were threatened, there are a lot of things that would be reasonable for him to do... that would appear very unlikely to any observer in a democratic country.
The PLA wasn't sent into Beijing in 1989 because it was the smart play. It was sent in because the alternative was to cede power to a citizenry you'd just spent decades terrorizing and murdering. (The madness of the Cultural Revolution having happened about 10 years earlier)
- duxup 7y agoYeah and Xi seems to have much more centeralized control than party control in the past ... an individual (or smaller group) may make far more unpredictable decision than say a large party who may naturally wish for stability.
- ethbro 7y agoMao had a bit. ;) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Communist_Party_of_China https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Communist_Part...