3 ms·

CCP does not care much. As someone said recently, the economical and political and cultural value of HK is diminishing rapidly in the past, and HK as to China b

CCP does not care much. As someone said recently, the economical and political and cultural value of HK is diminishing rapidly in the past, and HK as to China becomes much less relevant. The bottom line is no more political advancement that might causes dissidents inside the mainland. That's just no political reform in HK. And there should not be large scale violence. Everything else, up to the local government. HK won't be a role model for Taiwan. Despite numerous people using that for HK to be treated as somewhat more precious than it has been. My simple read is that everyone in China know Taiwan is different than HK, no one in China believe Taiwan will go through HK's struggle. For one thing, Taiwan has a real substantial economy that is complimenting to the mai land and is much larger in size and diversity, and HK does not.

thedudeabides5 7y ago
What would change in your assessment then were the mainland government to mobilize the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in the next two months? How likely do you think that is to occur?
- forkLding 7y ago
  It should be noted that the mainland govt. doesn't need to mobilize troops. The 6000-strong combat-ready PLA Hong Kong Garrison is already in Hong Kong. The only way for them to enter is if the Hong Kong govt. gives permission or the violence/demonstrations escalates to a point where troops need to be sent in or if the garrison is provoked. Otherwise, it will likely be ignored like the 2014 Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong and no military will be sent in. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Hong_Kong_Garrison https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Hon...
- baybal2 7y ago
  A light regiment can't do much about 1+ million people. They will have to be reinforced from the mainland. There were no stop to certainly demonstrative military maneuvers in Guangdong for the last 2 months. Very much an innuendo from PLA.
- justicezyx 7y ago
  There is various law to govern that. I doubt though that will happen. Plainly, military force is not needed. If HK was ruined, so be it. That's what I read from mainland's sentiment.
  - tepidandroid 7y ago
    This is my take on mainland sentiment also. If it comes down to HK being torn apart by some group, the CCP would rather that group be the HKers themselves than the PLA. HK is sufficiently culturally, politically and geographically insulated that don't have to worry about the unrest spreading over to the mainland. They’ll let them burn their own city down if that’s what they want - and if they do, the problem largely solves itself because an act like that would alienate most reasonable HKers from their cause. What they won’t tolerate is an external force stepping in on behalf of the protestors because that would be a direct challenge to their sovereignty over the region. That’s the one and only scenario where the PLA has a possibility of being deployed. The CCP has time on their side when it comes to dealing with this issue. Are the businesses in HK attempting to conduct their day to day operations able to say the same thing [1][2]? [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-29/hong-kong-protests-knock-investor-confidence-in-city-s-shares https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-29/hong-kong... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-28/hong-kong-s-economy-hit-by-protests-finance-secretary-chan-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-28/hong-kong...
    - pertymcpert 7y ago
      How do you know all of this?
rolltiide 7y ago
This is my perception too, even if discussions like this don't surface well on consensus driven sites. The Guangzhou region has experienced some of the greatest capitalist reforms and execution over the last few decades, and Hong Kong becomes less of a “separate system” and more of an “administrative convenience” for that region. Also its not clear if Hong Kong’s “Basic Law” constitution expires after its geographic autonomy expires. It doesn't have to. Even if mainland China activates their military there now-ish, it doesn’t mean that mainland China needs to absolve the HK system, and thats the same after 2047 too. It is purely discretionary and totally strategic. Yes, Hong Kong citizens are deathly afraid of these outcomes, but they don't a have a say in the matter and we shouldn't pretend like they do. It would be more productive if that was made clear.

thedudeabides5 7y ago

What would change in your assessment then were the mainland government to mobilize the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in the next two months? How likely do you think that is to occur?

forkLding 7y ago
It should be noted that the mainland govt. doesn't need to mobilize troops. The 6000-strong combat-ready PLA Hong Kong Garrison is already in Hong Kong. The only way for them to enter is if the Hong Kong govt. gives permission or the violence/demonstrations escalates to a point where troops need to be sent in or if the garrison is provoked. Otherwise, it will likely be ignored like the 2014 Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong and no military will be sent in. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Hong_Kong_Garrison https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Hon...
baybal2 7y ago
A light regiment can't do much about 1+ million people. They will have to be reinforced from the mainland. There were no stop to certainly demonstrative military maneuvers in Guangdong for the last 2 months. Very much an innuendo from PLA.
justicezyx 7y ago
There is various law to govern that. I doubt though that will happen. Plainly, military force is not needed. If HK was ruined, so be it. That's what I read from mainland's sentiment.
- tepidandroid 7y ago
  This is my take on mainland sentiment also. If it comes down to HK being torn apart by some group, the CCP would rather that group be the HKers themselves than the PLA. HK is sufficiently culturally, politically and geographically insulated that don't have to worry about the unrest spreading over to the mainland. They’ll let them burn their own city down if that’s what they want - and if they do, the problem largely solves itself because an act like that would alienate most reasonable HKers from their cause. What they won’t tolerate is an external force stepping in on behalf of the protestors because that would be a direct challenge to their sovereignty over the region. That’s the one and only scenario where the PLA has a possibility of being deployed. The CCP has time on their side when it comes to dealing with this issue. Are the businesses in HK attempting to conduct their day to day operations able to say the same thing [1][2]? [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-29/hong-kong-protests-knock-investor-confidence-in-city-s-shares https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-29/hong-kong... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-28/hong-kong-s-economy-hit-by-protests-finance-secretary-chan-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-28/hong-kong...
  - pertymcpert 7y ago
    How do you know all of this?

rolltiide 7y ago

This is my perception too, even if discussions like this don't surface well on consensus driven sites. The Guangzhou region has experienced some of the greatest capitalist reforms and execution over the last few decades, and Hong Kong becomes less of a “separate system” and more of an “administrative convenience” for that region. Also its not clear if Hong Kong’s “Basic Law” constitution expires after its geographic autonomy expires. It doesn't have to. Even if mainland China activates their military there now-ish, it doesn’t mean that mainland China needs to absolve the HK system, and thats the same after 2047 too. It is purely discretionary and totally strategic. Yes, Hong Kong citizens are deathly afraid of these outcomes, but they don't a have a say in the matter and we shouldn't pretend like they do. It would be more productive if that was made clear.