4 ms·
I wonder if it's not just a question of human nature for things to go into a cycle of overhyped boom and bust. People get very excited about something, progress
by tachyonbeam 7y ago
I wonder if it's not just a question of human nature for things to go into a cycle of overhyped boom and bust. People get very excited about something, progress doesn't happen fast enough, and then they get bored and move on to something else.
If we look at Google Trends, it looks like "deep learning" has hit a plateau back in 2017: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=deep%20learning https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=d...
Artificial intelligence peaked in January 2018:
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=artificial%20intelligence https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=a...
I work in AI and I'm very much thinking that another AI winter could come. I find myself wondering where are all the real-world AI deployments, and how effective they are. To my knowledge, there aren't super successful AI startups out there. There are startups getting a lot of investor money for AI research, but they do not have profitable business models. The venture capitalists are going to get tired of that at some point, if they aren't already.
- sdenton4 7y agoThere's a bunch of extremely valuable progress in less glamorous areas, like data center operations: https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/google-alphabet/google-switching-self-driving-data-center-management-system https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/google-alphabet/google-s...
- mark_l_watson 7y agoI think that we see what could be called “fear of missing out” of profits and benefits for AI. I have also been working in the field since 1982. Deep learning is a great technology but should be hurt by the lack of explainability and what I would call massive technical debt of not understanding how systems work. Exciting times, though.
- Veedrac 7y agoWould you be less worried if the graph was still going up? If it was already falling?