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I mostly agree. I see the lengths to which people go to save a few cents on gas (like $1.20 vs $1.13/litre around here) and I can't help but think that once the

I mostly agree. I see the lengths to which people go to save a few cents on gas (like $1.20 vs $1.13/litre around here) and I can't help but think that once the "gas" price of EVs starts to permeate the mass consciousness, ICE vehicles are done for (outside of some specific niches). I pay ~$1.25 in electricity to go 100km in my EV (overnight charging at home), someone in a comparable car would be paying about 10x as much. People, by and large, have not understood this. As for Tesla, they don't have any intent on being in the proper budget space, ie $15k mini cars. They've stated they will release a compact car in 3-5 years (no other info), but I doubt it'll ever cost less than $25k, probably more like $30k. And that's probably just fine and dandy with Tesla, as Apple has shown capturing a high-end clientele and their fat profits is a great place to be. Their plan for the "budget" space is robotaxis, which of course depends on their FSD program. We'll see how that goes.

WorldMaker 7y ago
Yeah, I think the tipping point for gas price sensitivity to cede to a (much) faster boom in EVs is likely a lot closer than many analysts currently expect. Because that tipping point is also concomitant with the "range anxiety" switchover point. Once gas prices hit certain peaks, station shutdowns will snowball (as evidenced from previous events such as the 70s oil crisis, 00s recession, et al), and long range price volatility (rural/interstate gas prices versus daily driver city gas prices) will change the economics of a lot of long term trip planning quickly to ICE trips (back to) being as range sensitive or more than comparable EV trips. Gas logistics may be a lot easier to disrupt than a lot of people expect right now.
SECProto 7y ago
> I pay ~$1.25 in electricity to go 100km in my EV (overnight charging at home), someone in a comparable car would be paying about 10x as much. People, by and large, have not understood this. I understand this, but the numbers are incredibly location dependent. Where I am, there is no time of day metering, and electricity is $0.15/kWh. Gas is $1.16/litre. As an example, to drive 100km in a model 3 (20kWh) is about $3, vs my current fuel efficient Yaris (I get 5.9l/100km) is $6.85. At that price difference of $3.85/100km, I have to drive 500,000km for the fuel to break even with the purchase price difference. Different cars and target markets, of course, as you mention. I really want a large carbon tax placed on fuel, to make the calculation work for me to go electric. A $30k (Canadian) car would help the calculation, as well.

WorldMaker 7y ago

Yeah, I think the tipping point for gas price sensitivity to cede to a (much) faster boom in EVs is likely a lot closer than many analysts currently expect. Because that tipping point is also concomitant with the "range anxiety" switchover point. Once gas prices hit certain peaks, station shutdowns will snowball (as evidenced from previous events such as the 70s oil crisis, 00s recession, et al), and long range price volatility (rural/interstate gas prices versus daily driver city gas prices) will change the economics of a lot of long term trip planning quickly to ICE trips (back to) being as range sensitive or more than comparable EV trips. Gas logistics may be a lot easier to disrupt than a lot of people expect right now.

SECProto 7y ago

> I pay ~$1.25 in electricity to go 100km in my EV (overnight charging at home), someone in a comparable car would be paying about 10x as much. People, by and large, have not understood this. I understand this, but the numbers are incredibly location dependent. Where I am, there is no time of day metering, and electricity is $0.15/kWh. Gas is $1.16/litre. As an example, to drive 100km in a model 3 (20kWh) is about $3, vs my current fuel efficient Yaris (I get 5.9l/100km) is $6.85. At that price difference of $3.85/100km, I have to drive 500,000km for the fuel to break even with the purchase price difference. Different cars and target markets, of course, as you mention. I really want a large carbon tax placed on fuel, to make the calculation work for me to go electric. A $30k (Canadian) car would help the calculation, as well.