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Of course EVs are booming in relative terms. Things boom all the time in relative terms. That's not remarkable. The pure EV market will eventually dominate veh
by sjwright 7y ago
Of course EVs are booming in relative terms. Things boom all the time in relative terms. That's not remarkable.
The pure EV market will eventually dominate vehicle sales in most segments, and most of the rest will be PHEV. Have EVs even hit 1% of worldwide vehicle sales yet? Call me back when it passes 10% and we'll talk about an EV boom.
- Retric 7y agoWe are well past that 1%. Global EV Sales In May 2019: Over 179,000 At 2.3% Market Share https://insideevs.com/news/357198/global-ev-sales-in-may-2019/ https://insideevs.com/news/357198/global-ev-sales-in-may-201... The current trend is under 4 years until EV’s are 10% of global car sales. It’s likely adoption will slow down at some point, but 50% of all new car sales being EV could happen within 10 years. Though it would take much longer for EV’s to represent 1/2 of all cars on the road.
- ThomPete 7y agoPretty sure that's relative to the sales not to how many cars are EV of the entire car fleet , also probably a bunch of hybrids in that too.
- sp332 7y agoYeah sjwright asked about sales and got an answer about sales.
- sjwright 7y agoAnd I'm genuinely impressed that it's that high. I expected the Toyota Camrys and low cost Indian scooters to dwarf EV sales more than that—but I had forgotten about the Chinese manufacturers!
- benj111 7y ago"low cost Indian scooters" Would those actually be included in these figures?
- sjwright 7y agoI don't know, but they should be. Not doing so would be contemptuous for people of lower socio-economic means.
- benj111 7y agoBut if you include indian scooters, why not include pedelecs, or hover boards? And going the other way electric buses, and electric trains? Its useful to know the total number of electric people movers, its also useful to know how many electric cars there are. There is no moral component to that.
- ksec 7y agoBut I still agree with your point though, I don't call 2% market share booming. Not to mention the amount of incentives involves in pushing these numbers. Battery and Charging point is still the biggest issue in most places around the world.
- lancewiggs 7y ago2.3% - at 60% annual growth would be ~100% in 8 years. Exponential growth is always unintuitive, but I'd expect many people in this community to understand it. Next questions What is the sustainable growth rate? Higher than 60%? Lower? And are we going to, in 10 years, see more EVs sold (for much less each) than ICE vehicles are sold today? The answer is we'd better, as we have to get those ICE vehicles off the road.
- jsight 7y agoI'm pretty sure that Tesla alone is over 1% (maybe 1.5 to 2%?) of the US car market. Worldwide is likely to be even higher for electric cars in general. The thing is that shifts in large markets like this take a long time to really be realized. It has taken Tesla 15 years to go from 0% to over 1%. Their current aggressive plans call to double that in another 2 years. The real question is what kind of change can they make over the next 15 years. And for that, we need the crystal ball...
- jtuente 7y agoLooks like Tesla is sitting just under 1% currently YTD. Edit: and 1.1% for 2018. http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/u-s-auto-sales-figures-by-brand/ http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/u-s-auto-sales-figures-by-brand...
- jsight 7y agoOh, I underestimated total sales. For some reason I thought the US was closer to 15 million sales this year. I do think that estimate may be slightly undercounting Tesla this year, but I could be wrong.