2 ms·

assuming a binary question (very important) if you aren't sure, if you thought most people thought differently from you, why would you hold on to your belief th

assuming a binary question (very important) if you aren't sure, if you thought most people thought differently from you, why would you hold on to your belief that lacks both primary and secondary support? "My best guess is X but I believe most people would contradict me" suggests that you consider yourself an expert who knows better than most people.

benj111 7y ago
On the other hand, how would you communicate uncertainty in the context of a binary question?
pvaldes 7y ago
The problem with this technique is that is useless We live in cultural bubbles, tending to cluster close to people like we (People that speak the same language, with similar points of view, economic levels, cultural answers engraved for solving the same problem, eating the same food, cooked in the same way, exposed to the same publicity, popular songs, sport teams and ideological propaganda). People make most of their friends in the same school whereas being teached the same things by the same teacher. Therefore, we are notoriously bad guessing what other people think... out of our cultural bubble. If you ask people questions like "Will your neighbors enjoy doing pig meat barbeques?", "Are this mushrooms poisonous" or "Is ok to put soap directly in your bath water?" they can provide a reliable answer, but the results can't be extrapolated out of the cluster. Are useles to find the truth. All cultures choose to ignore big chunks of human knowledge or do some things plain wrong. A poisonous mushroom can be made edible after cooking by an obscure technique culturally spread. Many jews will dislike pig meat. Many japanese will not find ok to put soap in the bath. The majority of people in the planet don't know and will not care about what is the capital of Guangdong, Entre Ríos, or Philadelphia. If your starting variables are unconstrained (the people answering the question is anonymous and from an unknown pool) the technique is a sociological dice that will return different results each time (AKA pseudoscience)

benj111 7y ago

On the other hand, how would you communicate uncertainty in the context of a binary question?

pvaldes 7y ago

The problem with this technique is that is useless We live in cultural bubbles, tending to cluster close to people like we (People that speak the same language, with similar points of view, economic levels, cultural answers engraved for solving the same problem, eating the same food, cooked in the same way, exposed to the same publicity, popular songs, sport teams and ideological propaganda). People make most of their friends in the same school whereas being teached the same things by the same teacher. Therefore, we are notoriously bad guessing what other people think... out of our cultural bubble. If you ask people questions like "Will your neighbors enjoy doing pig meat barbeques?", "Are this mushrooms poisonous" or "Is ok to put soap directly in your bath water?" they can provide a reliable answer, but the results can't be extrapolated out of the cluster. Are useles to find the truth. All cultures choose to ignore big chunks of human knowledge or do some things plain wrong. A poisonous mushroom can be made edible after cooking by an obscure technique culturally spread. Many jews will dislike pig meat. Many japanese will not find ok to put soap in the bath. The majority of people in the planet don't know and will not care about what is the capital of Guangdong, Entre Ríos, or Philadelphia. If your starting variables are unconstrained (the people answering the question is anonymous and from an unknown pool) the technique is a sociological dice that will return different results each time (AKA pseudoscience)