In the cases of Brexit and the 2016 US Presidential election, betting markets reported a majority of money on Remain and Clinton with a majority of bets on Leav

In the cases of Brexit and the 2016 US Presidential election, betting markets reported a majority of money on Remain and Clinton with a majority of bets on Leave and Trump. Perhaps the number of bets is analogous to what people believe, while total money bet is analogous to what people think others believe. If so, the surprisingly popular answer is the one with the smallest average bet. The obvious analog in the stock market is average order size, but this isn't a generally-available statistic, and it's not clear to me whether it would be meaningful. Volume (shares traded per time unit) is closely-watched, however, and several technical analysis "indicators" compare price changes to volume.[1][2][3][4] High liquidity is a state of relatively small price changes per unit of trading volume. It generally means traders are not paying large premiums/discounts to previous trades. In a way, this corresponds to a smaller bets on future returns, and thus, to surprisingly popular returns... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ease_of_movement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ease_of_movement [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_index [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volume-price_trend https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volume-price_trend [4] There are similar concepts in modern portfolio theorgy, such as Amihud illiquidity.