4 ms·

In this I would expect it to be similar to the precious metals market - The major moves play out suddenly after years of "relative" quiet.

benj111 7y ago
Who are the prognosticators? I've not read and not sure you accurately can predict medium/long term inflation rates. And what part of what cycle? I assumed when you said debauched, you meant quantitive easing and general money printing. If you, say, double the money supply there isn't going to be double the things to buy, so the cost of what there is will rise to compensate (inflation), or so the theory goes. That seems distinct from any kind of economic cycle, although obviously if you start printing money when theres deflationary pressures then that could act to stabilise the currency, but that doesn't sound like debauching the currency, and doesn't necessarily mean you need to keep printing the money when the inflationary pressure returns.
- raintrees 7y ago
  Sorry, I am multi-tasking, and that poorly. I will look up some of the references, the names that seem to be coming to mind (looking over my RSS feeds) are Kuppy from Adventures in Capitalism, Chris Martensen from Peak Prosperity, Simon Black of Sovereign Man, Charles Hugh Smith of Of Two Minds, I think less-doom-prone authors on fee.org and mises.org. It is highly likely a biased list, I seem to have been gravitating towards the overall message of decay/decline, helped along by the citations of urban areas not doing too well in various places throughout the US. I live very rural along the northern coast of California, so more selection-bias there, as well. Yes on my debauchery reference, QE, TARP, increasing debt (temporary removal of the debt ceiling - oh boy), increasing obligations incurring more debt (social programs, retirements and benefits), the general idea of borrowing from our future to live for today that seems to be the current m.o. And now apparently little in the way of an anchor for US currency (or other central bank nations, for that matter) since removal from the Gold standard, and recently the demise of Bretton Woods as other nations seek ways around being forced to use US currency. This leads me to conclude that we are on the down-slope of Charles Hugh Smith's S curve: https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar19/empires-collapse3-19.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar19/empires-collapse3-19.ht... Have to run, cooking (experimental tomatillos, tomatoes, and Cilantro sauce) as well as doing some remote tech support.

benj111 7y ago

Who are the prognosticators? I've not read and not sure you accurately can predict medium/long term inflation rates. And what part of what cycle? I assumed when you said debauched, you meant quantitive easing and general money printing. If you, say, double the money supply there isn't going to be double the things to buy, so the cost of what there is will rise to compensate (inflation), or so the theory goes. That seems distinct from any kind of economic cycle, although obviously if you start printing money when theres deflationary pressures then that could act to stabilise the currency, but that doesn't sound like debauching the currency, and doesn't necessarily mean you need to keep printing the money when the inflationary pressure returns.

raintrees 7y ago
Sorry, I am multi-tasking, and that poorly. I will look up some of the references, the names that seem to be coming to mind (looking over my RSS feeds) are Kuppy from Adventures in Capitalism, Chris Martensen from Peak Prosperity, Simon Black of Sovereign Man, Charles Hugh Smith of Of Two Minds, I think less-doom-prone authors on fee.org and mises.org. It is highly likely a biased list, I seem to have been gravitating towards the overall message of decay/decline, helped along by the citations of urban areas not doing too well in various places throughout the US. I live very rural along the northern coast of California, so more selection-bias there, as well. Yes on my debauchery reference, QE, TARP, increasing debt (temporary removal of the debt ceiling - oh boy), increasing obligations incurring more debt (social programs, retirements and benefits), the general idea of borrowing from our future to live for today that seems to be the current m.o. And now apparently little in the way of an anchor for US currency (or other central bank nations, for that matter) since removal from the Gold standard, and recently the demise of Bretton Woods as other nations seek ways around being forced to use US currency. This leads me to conclude that we are on the down-slope of Charles Hugh Smith's S curve: https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar19/empires-collapse3-19.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar19/empires-collapse3-19.ht... Have to run, cooking (experimental tomatillos, tomatoes, and Cilantro sauce) as well as doing some remote tech support.