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A more realistic example of that would be: Q. Is the earth flat? Yes: 0.1% No: 99.9% Q: What do you think most people will respond to that question?

A more realistic example of that would be: Q. Is the earth flat? Yes: 0.1% No: 99.9% Q: What do you think most people will respond to that question? Yes: 10% No: 90% Analysis: Yes: 0.1% - 10% = -9.9% No: 99.9% - 90% = 9.9% Conclusion: the earth is not flat. Not sure where you're getting the "10% believe the earth is flat" from, but if that's just your guess then it's pretty reasonable for people to say they think 10% of people will respond yes to the question.

cygx 7y ago
If there are only 0.1% of flat earthers, why would 10% of people think it to be the most popular answer? That does not seem realistic at all. Or did you interpret the question as suggested by bena in his sibling answer, ie as an estimate for the answer distribution (that would then have to be averaged) instead of a choice of the most popular answer (as was done in the wiki article)?
- Grue3 7y ago
  >That does not seem realistic at all. That does seem realistic considering how often the topic pf flat-earthers comes up in discussions on social media, despite it being an extremely niche view.
  - cygx 7y ago
    OP suggested that 10% of people think there are more than 50% of flat-earthers when the real number is 0.1%. Phrased another way, 10% of people expect half the people they meet will be flat-earthers when it's 1 in 1000. Doesn't seem realistic to me.
Iv 7y ago
Works with creationism then. But, interestingly, there may be a symmetry between people who overestimate the amount of creationists and creationists who underestimate their numbers. So maybe that technique is actually valid. It spots an asymmetry in people who think the majority is wrong on something.
- cygx 7y ago
  The second question does not ask for an estimate of prevalence, but to pick the answer you think most popular. You can over-estimate the amounts as much as you like as long as the majority choice remains the same, ie it would not matter whether you think there are 0.1% or 49.9% of creationists...
Redoubts 7y ago
> Not sure where you're getting the "10% believe the earth is flat" from, I think OKCupid got numbers like this for the question, or something like "is the Earth bigger than the Sun". To which I attribute to the smartass constant -- or rather that dumb questions elicit dumb responses.
fireattack 7y ago
No, his number is right. It's not about what exactly the percentage flat-Earther would be (be it 1% or 0.1%), it's about which question has more "no" percentage. And it should be Q2 because Normal people will answer "No" to both questions. Flat-Earther will answer "Yes" to the first question. Most of them would, however, answer "No" for the second, because they're well aware they are the minority on this topic (think "wake up sheeple!").
ordu 7y ago
> Not sure where you're getting the "10% believe the earth is flat" from I'm not sure, that "yes" imply that the asked person believes that Earth is flat. I probably would be confused if someone asked me such a dumb question (why?), and I answer "yes" to make situation to be obscure not just for me.

cygx 7y ago

If there are only 0.1% of flat earthers, why would 10% of people think it to be the most popular answer? That does not seem realistic at all. Or did you interpret the question as suggested by bena in his sibling answer, ie as an estimate for the answer distribution (that would then have to be averaged) instead of a choice of the most popular answer (as was done in the wiki article)?

Grue3 7y ago
>That does not seem realistic at all. That does seem realistic considering how often the topic pf flat-earthers comes up in discussions on social media, despite it being an extremely niche view.
- cygx 7y ago
  OP suggested that 10% of people think there are more than 50% of flat-earthers when the real number is 0.1%. Phrased another way, 10% of people expect half the people they meet will be flat-earthers when it's 1 in 1000. Doesn't seem realistic to me.

Iv 7y ago

Works with creationism then. But, interestingly, there may be a symmetry between people who overestimate the amount of creationists and creationists who underestimate their numbers. So maybe that technique is actually valid. It spots an asymmetry in people who think the majority is wrong on something.

cygx 7y ago
The second question does not ask for an estimate of prevalence, but to pick the answer you think most popular. You can over-estimate the amounts as much as you like as long as the majority choice remains the same, ie it would not matter whether you think there are 0.1% or 49.9% of creationists...

Redoubts 7y ago

> Not sure where you're getting the "10% believe the earth is flat" from, I think OKCupid got numbers like this for the question, or something like "is the Earth bigger than the Sun". To which I attribute to the smartass constant -- or rather that dumb questions elicit dumb responses.

fireattack 7y ago

No, his number is right. It's not about what exactly the percentage flat-Earther would be (be it 1% or 0.1%), it's about which question has more "no" percentage. And it should be Q2 because Normal people will answer "No" to both questions. Flat-Earther will answer "Yes" to the first question. Most of them would, however, answer "No" for the second, because they're well aware they are the minority on this topic (think "wake up sheeple!").

ordu 7y ago

> Not sure where you're getting the "10% believe the earth is flat" from I'm not sure, that "yes" imply that the asked person believes that Earth is flat. I probably would be confused if someone asked me such a dumb question (why?), and I answer "yes" to make situation to be obscure not just for me.