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Deviations from purchasing power parity in currencies have a half life of seven years. Unless you’re investing for the short term the effects of currency fluctu
by barry-cotter 7y ago
Deviations from purchasing power parity in currencies have a half life of seven years. Unless you’re investing for the short term the effects of currency fluctuations on returns to your portfolio will be swamped by differences in growth across national economies and their stock exchanges’ growth rates. In the long run currency risk washes out in differences in economic growth. You’re better off investing in the stock market indices you think will grow more. Population growth in the US compared to the EU alone would suggest investing in the US over Europe. If you think we’ll continue to have a more or less peaceful 21st century you’re better off investing in economies you think will grow more, which would suggest investing in the Indian subcontinent and Africa. If you don’t think that’s the way to bet you should invest in places likely to have political stability above most anything else so you should invest in places with strong states unlikely to have massive political unrest that will maintain good relations with your home country. For security you’d invest in property in someplace like Switzerland through real estate investment trusts, or the US if you think the West will endure as a political reality and the US will avoid civil unrest in the coming decades.
- lrem 7y agoOn a particular point: the number of vacant properties in Switzerland has exceeded the population of the capital. The safe property investment idea got too popular to stay effective.