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I guess it depends on what you mean by "threatened". Sure, humans will continue to exist, we won't go extinct, at least not globally. But we're looking at local

I guess it depends on what you mean by "threatened". Sure, humans will continue to exist, we won't go extinct, at least not globally. But we're looking at local and possibly global societal collapse. If we're back 500 years in the past developmentally and technologically, that's a huge deal. Maybe even if you survive, can you go back to a world without vaccines, antibiotics and mass communication?

crispyporkbites 7y ago
Do you think we can lose 500 years of tech development globally? I can see some areas becoming challenging and definitely a slowdown in progress but it seems unlikely that all this knowledge will evaporate
- jorblumesea 7y ago
  I don't have a good answer to that question, I'm not sure anyone does. But if society collapses, much of that knowledge goes with it. Our society is incredibly complex and fragile, with a very high degree of specialization. That makes us vulnerable to these kinds of issues. While the "dark ages" were hardly dark and ignorant, the collapse of the Roman empire meant advanced road building and concrete were lost for 1500 years. So there is some historical precedent here.
  - noir_lord 7y ago
    500 years would put us back to 1500ish, I can’t see that, steam technology and electric motors/turbines are simply doable (and where done) with not much technology to boot strap from, hand tools made machines which made specialised machines which repeated for generations but the first step comes back to steam and electrification. It’s not like every book in every library would or could disappear.
- golemiprague 7y ago
  Yes, it happened after the bronze age and can happen again but nobody is 100% sure why and how it happened, they think a combination of some climate situation around Greece pushed the people there to immigrate or invade the fertile crescent civilisations which were interconnected and very developed. After this invasion the whole area collapsed and went back to the stone age for at least 500 years. Saying that, I don't think anybody can predict the climate situation, let alone predict the outcome of it, I also like Trump, but that's me.
- jpindar 7y ago
  We might lose electronics and such, but we won't forget that a wood stove is more efficient than an open fireplace. We won't forget that it's a good idea to dig your outhouse far away from your source of drinking water.
- VBprogrammer 7y ago
  I think there is a problem with knowledge being very dencly concentrated and supply chains being so long. If you took someone who worked in a steel mill I bet they would have no idea how to produce steel from first principles. They know what their job entails, they know which bits of equipment need serviced an maintained but they don't know how to get from rocks to bar stock. Similarly if you had a perfectly working steel mill and you cut the supply of coke or iron ore few would know how to get it up and running again. If you cut the supply of the alloying elements you might get a passable mild steel but not one to the exact specifications you require. I think it's probably surprising how few vital links you have to cut before life as we know it breaks down.
MiroF 7y ago
as a reminder, the original comment was "I don't see how we are getting out of this alive"
- adrianN 7y ago
  A lot of people will die due to climate change and the ensuing political instability.

crispyporkbites 7y ago

Do you think we can lose 500 years of tech development globally? I can see some areas becoming challenging and definitely a slowdown in progress but it seems unlikely that all this knowledge will evaporate

jorblumesea 7y ago
I don't have a good answer to that question, I'm not sure anyone does. But if society collapses, much of that knowledge goes with it. Our society is incredibly complex and fragile, with a very high degree of specialization. That makes us vulnerable to these kinds of issues. While the "dark ages" were hardly dark and ignorant, the collapse of the Roman empire meant advanced road building and concrete were lost for 1500 years. So there is some historical precedent here.
- noir_lord 7y ago
  500 years would put us back to 1500ish, I can’t see that, steam technology and electric motors/turbines are simply doable (and where done) with not much technology to boot strap from, hand tools made machines which made specialised machines which repeated for generations but the first step comes back to steam and electrification. It’s not like every book in every library would or could disappear.
golemiprague 7y ago
Yes, it happened after the bronze age and can happen again but nobody is 100% sure why and how it happened, they think a combination of some climate situation around Greece pushed the people there to immigrate or invade the fertile crescent civilisations which were interconnected and very developed. After this invasion the whole area collapsed and went back to the stone age for at least 500 years. Saying that, I don't think anybody can predict the climate situation, let alone predict the outcome of it, I also like Trump, but that's me.
jpindar 7y ago
We might lose electronics and such, but we won't forget that a wood stove is more efficient than an open fireplace. We won't forget that it's a good idea to dig your outhouse far away from your source of drinking water.
VBprogrammer 7y ago
I think there is a problem with knowledge being very dencly concentrated and supply chains being so long. If you took someone who worked in a steel mill I bet they would have no idea how to produce steel from first principles. They know what their job entails, they know which bits of equipment need serviced an maintained but they don't know how to get from rocks to bar stock. Similarly if you had a perfectly working steel mill and you cut the supply of coke or iron ore few would know how to get it up and running again. If you cut the supply of the alloying elements you might get a passable mild steel but not one to the exact specifications you require. I think it's probably surprising how few vital links you have to cut before life as we know it breaks down.

MiroF 7y ago

as a reminder, the original comment was "I don't see how we are getting out of this alive"

adrianN 7y ago
A lot of people will die due to climate change and the ensuing political instability.