5 ms·

This seems like the perfect time to panic. I just don’t see how we’re getting out of this alive.

flagfeedingusa1 7y ago
yes, I was panicking back when al gore tried to scare the crap out of all of us by saying all ice caps will be melted by 2012 and to start panicking because we were going to lose all the coastal cities. he then proceeded to buy investment property on the beach. forgive me if i dont give a shit anymore.
avip 7y ago
Have you completed shock and denial already?
cranky_coder 7y ago
Does anyone really make it out of this world alive?
andrewstuart 7y ago
I'm on your wavelength. The biggest, most gigantic problem, amongst many, is that the food supply seems in serious danger.
- agumonkey 7y ago
  food, water, shelter, space.. right now the most important is leader, but that's a concept not a thing
- chrisco255 7y ago
  No, it's not at all. Look, crop yields are way up in the past few years: Rice yields are up 40% since 1988: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/riceyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/riceyl... Corn's up 60%: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyl... Wheat is up 48% since '88: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/wwyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/wwyld.... Cattle inventory looks steady: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Cattle/inv.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Cattle/inv.php Yeah...hmm, not seeing a reason to panic about food supply.
  - loup-vaillant 7y ago
    > Yeah...hmm, not seeing a reason to panic about food supply. Food supply go up for now. Will they still go up after Peak Oil? Peak Energy?
  - andrewstuart 7y ago
    You're giving historical stats. These are effectively irrelevant because they are from the time when the climate was still largely the same as it has been for hundreds of years. The question is - what will be the yields in a world in which the seasons are disrupted?
    - chrisco255 7y ago
      The seasons won't be disrupted mate. The seasons depend on the tilt of the Earth's axis as it rotates around the sun. The worst case scenario we're looking at is a shift in the fertile zones that crops can thrive in. That shift is far easier to deal with in a global warming scenario than a global cooling scenario. If we were to be entering an ice age, crop yields would go down and food supply would shrink. As it stands, warmth and CO2 are good for plants, so it's not likely to damage food supply at all.
GreeniFi 7y ago
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nR0lOtdvqyg https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nR0lOtdvqyg
pulisse 7y ago
> I just don’t see how we’re getting out of this alive. Even worst case predictions for climate change don't imply the human race will be threatened. But what we will see is massive geopolitical disruption as previously habitable regions become uninhabitable. What happens when coastal Myanmar is underwater or southern India experiences 130 degree days on a regular basis? Climate change is going to make itself felt over the coming decades as increases in migrant crises, regional conflicts, and famines. (Not to mention economic loss as, e.g., the agricultural viability of large areas changes.)
- jorblumesea 7y ago
  I guess it depends on what you mean by "threatened". Sure, humans will continue to exist, we won't go extinct, at least not globally. But we're looking at local and possibly global societal collapse. If we're back 500 years in the past developmentally and technologically, that's a huge deal. Maybe even if you survive, can you go back to a world without vaccines, antibiotics and mass communication?
  - crispyporkbites 7y ago
    Do you think we can lose 500 years of tech development globally? I can see some areas becoming challenging and definitely a slowdown in progress but it seems unlikely that all this knowledge will evaporate
    - jorblumesea 7y ago
      I don't have a good answer to that question, I'm not sure anyone does. But if society collapses, much of that knowledge goes with it. Our society is incredibly complex and fragile, with a very high degree of specialization. That makes us vulnerable to these kinds of issues. While the "dark ages" were hardly dark and ignorant, the collapse of the Roman empire meant advanced road building and concrete were lost for 1500 years. So there is some historical precedent here.
      - noir_lord 7y ago
agumonkey 7y ago
Musk should spin his boring company as underground housing construction. I don't think we'll have time for BFR production to escape to Mars
ajconway 7y ago
I wonder if Canada and Russia will be the nicest places to live in the next century.
- mirimir 7y ago
  The northern parts, sure. Also northern China. The Arctic could become the new Mediterranean.
  - noir_lord 7y ago
    Under what scenario would the temperature of the artic shift by more than 30C over the whole year... That’s silly.
    - mirimir 7y ago
      Why would that be necessary? They grow lots of wheat in the US upper midwest, and it gets damn cold there in the winter.
      - noir_lord 7y ago
        He said Mediterranean, upper Midwest in the US is not a Mediterranean climate either.
        mirimir 7y ago
        Ah. Yes, I said Mediterranean. But I meant it in the classical sense. Of a sea used for transportation among major centers of civilization. When everything in the current temperate zones has become ultra-tropical hellhole.
mirimir 7y ago
Well, I'm certainly not getting out alive. And so far, nobody that I know of has. Maybe someday, one day, though. But yes, you likely meant "we're" in the sense of the human race, or modern technological society. I really doubt that the human race is seriously at risk. Although global population could drop substantially. As part of modern technological society crashing. So it goes. It was probably inevitable. Edit: As with population boom-and-bust cycles, generally.
- chrisco255 7y ago
  Not getting how that's possible at all. An ice age would be far more devastating to the human race than a warming period. Crop yields are up: 1) https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyl... 2) https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/riceyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/riceyl... Ok, so food looks safe and secure. Um, lets see, what are the other basic needs? Shelter? Water? We've had the rainiest year in 125 years: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/08/united-states-is-virtually-drought-free-first-time-decades-while-excessive-rains-are-rampant/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.91d97ed8181c https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/08/united-sta... So uhh...water looks good. We also happen to find ourselves on a planet that's covered in 70% water...so there's always that as a back up supply... Hmm...maybe our 21st century sensibilities require energy as a basic necessity. We've got tons of resources for energy (more than ever in history). Hmm. I'm really not seeing a reason to panic. EDIT: Sea level is rising at 3.3 mm a year: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ Look, I do think some coastal communities may need to engineer some solutions to prevent damage, or some cities may need to "retract" inland...but it's not like ocean levels have ever been static. http://www.kwaad.net/SeaLevel-MiddleAges-LittleIceAge.html http://www.kwaad.net/SeaLevel-MiddleAges-LittleIceAge.html
  - mirimir 7y ago
    Time will tell. Honestly, I don't care much, because I'll be dead. But I do expect considerable lulz, before I die.
std_throwaway 7y ago
While you panic other people make big money.

yes, I was panicking back when al gore tried to scare the crap out of all of us by saying all ice caps will be melted by 2012 and to start panicking because we were going to lose all the coastal cities. he then proceeded to buy investment property on the beach. forgive me if i dont give a shit anymore.

avip 7y ago

Have you completed shock and denial already?

cranky_coder 7y ago

Does anyone really make it out of this world alive?

andrewstuart 7y ago

I'm on your wavelength. The biggest, most gigantic problem, amongst many, is that the food supply seems in serious danger.

agumonkey 7y ago
food, water, shelter, space.. right now the most important is leader, but that's a concept not a thing
chrisco255 7y ago
No, it's not at all. Look, crop yields are way up in the past few years: Rice yields are up 40% since 1988: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/riceyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/riceyl... Corn's up 60%: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyl... Wheat is up 48% since '88: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/wwyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/wwyld.... Cattle inventory looks steady: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Cattle/inv.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Cattle/inv.php Yeah...hmm, not seeing a reason to panic about food supply.
- loup-vaillant 7y ago
  > Yeah...hmm, not seeing a reason to panic about food supply. Food supply go up for now. Will they still go up after Peak Oil? Peak Energy?
- andrewstuart 7y ago
  You're giving historical stats. These are effectively irrelevant because they are from the time when the climate was still largely the same as it has been for hundreds of years. The question is - what will be the yields in a world in which the seasons are disrupted?
  - chrisco255 7y ago
    The seasons won't be disrupted mate. The seasons depend on the tilt of the Earth's axis as it rotates around the sun. The worst case scenario we're looking at is a shift in the fertile zones that crops can thrive in. That shift is far easier to deal with in a global warming scenario than a global cooling scenario. If we were to be entering an ice age, crop yields would go down and food supply would shrink. As it stands, warmth and CO2 are good for plants, so it's not likely to damage food supply at all.

GreeniFi 7y ago

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nR0lOtdvqyg https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nR0lOtdvqyg

pulisse 7y ago

> I just don’t see how we’re getting out of this alive. Even worst case predictions for climate change don't imply the human race will be threatened. But what we will see is massive geopolitical disruption as previously habitable regions become uninhabitable. What happens when coastal Myanmar is underwater or southern India experiences 130 degree days on a regular basis? Climate change is going to make itself felt over the coming decades as increases in migrant crises, regional conflicts, and famines. (Not to mention economic loss as, e.g., the agricultural viability of large areas changes.)

jorblumesea 7y ago
I guess it depends on what you mean by "threatened". Sure, humans will continue to exist, we won't go extinct, at least not globally. But we're looking at local and possibly global societal collapse. If we're back 500 years in the past developmentally and technologically, that's a huge deal. Maybe even if you survive, can you go back to a world without vaccines, antibiotics and mass communication?
- crispyporkbites 7y ago
  Do you think we can lose 500 years of tech development globally? I can see some areas becoming challenging and definitely a slowdown in progress but it seems unlikely that all this knowledge will evaporate
  - jorblumesea 7y ago
    I don't have a good answer to that question, I'm not sure anyone does. But if society collapses, much of that knowledge goes with it. Our society is incredibly complex and fragile, with a very high degree of specialization. That makes us vulnerable to these kinds of issues. While the "dark ages" were hardly dark and ignorant, the collapse of the Roman empire meant advanced road building and concrete were lost for 1500 years. So there is some historical precedent here.
    - noir_lord 7y ago

agumonkey 7y ago

Musk should spin his boring company as underground housing construction. I don't think we'll have time for BFR production to escape to Mars

ajconway 7y ago

I wonder if Canada and Russia will be the nicest places to live in the next century.

mirimir 7y ago
The northern parts, sure. Also northern China. The Arctic could become the new Mediterranean.
- noir_lord 7y ago
  Under what scenario would the temperature of the artic shift by more than 30C over the whole year... That’s silly.
  - mirimir 7y ago
    Why would that be necessary? They grow lots of wheat in the US upper midwest, and it gets damn cold there in the winter.
    - noir_lord 7y ago
      He said Mediterranean, upper Midwest in the US is not a Mediterranean climate either.
      - mirimir 7y ago
        Ah. Yes, I said Mediterranean. But I meant it in the classical sense. Of a sea used for transportation among major centers of civilization. When everything in the current temperate zones has become ultra-tropical hellhole.

mirimir 7y ago

Well, I'm certainly not getting out alive. And so far, nobody that I know of has. Maybe someday, one day, though. But yes, you likely meant "we're" in the sense of the human race, or modern technological society. I really doubt that the human race is seriously at risk. Although global population could drop substantially. As part of modern technological society crashing. So it goes. It was probably inevitable. Edit: As with population boom-and-bust cycles, generally.

chrisco255 7y ago
Not getting how that's possible at all. An ice age would be far more devastating to the human race than a warming period. Crop yields are up: 1) https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyl... 2) https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/riceyld.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/riceyl... Ok, so food looks safe and secure. Um, lets see, what are the other basic needs? Shelter? Water? We've had the rainiest year in 125 years: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/08/united-states-is-virtually-drought-free-first-time-decades-while-excessive-rains-are-rampant/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.91d97ed8181c https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/08/united-sta... So uhh...water looks good. We also happen to find ourselves on a planet that's covered in 70% water...so there's always that as a back up supply... Hmm...maybe our 21st century sensibilities require energy as a basic necessity. We've got tons of resources for energy (more than ever in history). Hmm. I'm really not seeing a reason to panic. EDIT: Sea level is rising at 3.3 mm a year: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ Look, I do think some coastal communities may need to engineer some solutions to prevent damage, or some cities may need to "retract" inland...but it's not like ocean levels have ever been static. http://www.kwaad.net/SeaLevel-MiddleAges-LittleIceAge.html http://www.kwaad.net/SeaLevel-MiddleAges-LittleIceAge.html
- mirimir 7y ago
  Time will tell. Honestly, I don't care much, because I'll be dead. But I do expect considerable lulz, before I die.

std_throwaway 7y ago

While you panic other people make big money.