Almost by definition (if this is true, and I'm sure it's way way way more complicated than a simple rule of thumb), the market would have priced this in already

Almost by definition (if this is true, and I'm sure it's way way way more complicated than a simple rule of thumb), the market would have priced this in already. Or do you think that you're in possession of a secret, which has its own Wikipedia page, that the PhDs with supercomputers on Wall Street were unaware of? If so, congratulations, you are free to make billions in the markets by exploiting your superior knowledge which the Street cannot match. I am a little bit familiar with the inverted yield curve thing, and it is certainly much more complex- including that rules that governed the economy in the past may no longer apply