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We keep waiting and waiting for these companies to finally start making a profit. And those companies keep making up new narratives about how those profits are

We keep waiting and waiting for these companies to finally start making a profit. And those companies keep making up new narratives about how those profits are coming soon. Are we in a new age? Is there a chance investors will keep waiting forever? In a age where interest rates are near permanently 0 and people invest in bitcoin ( a currency that has no real value other than the faith people have in it ~ as a store of value), perhaps people will keep investing tesla, uber, etc even if profits never really come.

jfengel 7y ago
Bizarrely, investors sometimes do seem to be content to wait forever. Surely AMZN, with it's P/E ratio, isn't a startup any more. They're making a ton of money, but not 80-years-to-recoup-your-investment money. They're investing a lot, but these investments would have to quadruple their profits to get the price back into justifiable range. Apple, meanwhile, steadfastly maintains a P/E under 20. Investors seem OK as long as there's a new generation of investors to sell to when they retire. Everybody is content with the fiction because somehow the economy keeps chugging along at its tolerable 2-3%. You can short the overpriced thing all you want, but you're gonna run out of cash waiting for it to fall. Got me. I keep expecting this long, slow boom to end and reset everything. I've been expecting it for a decade. So what the hell do I know.
anthonypasq 7y ago
> a currency that has no real value other than the faith people have in it this is how all currencies work
- jfengel 7y ago
  Some currencies require less faith than others. Like when a large organization with an enormous infrastructure insists on paying in that currency and demands payments in that currency. And when that large organization is in control of the land you live on -- including depending on that organization to defend that land in case of invasion. There's a whole lot more behind those currencies than with Canadian Tire Money or Flooz. When you live in the place you're committed in a way that you just aren't with any other currency. Losing faith in that currency is bad for you in a way that goes far, far beyond the exchange value of a token.

jfengel 7y ago

Bizarrely, investors sometimes do seem to be content to wait forever. Surely AMZN, with it's P/E ratio, isn't a startup any more. They're making a ton of money, but not 80-years-to-recoup-your-investment money. They're investing a lot, but these investments would have to quadruple their profits to get the price back into justifiable range. Apple, meanwhile, steadfastly maintains a P/E under 20. Investors seem OK as long as there's a new generation of investors to sell to when they retire. Everybody is content with the fiction because somehow the economy keeps chugging along at its tolerable 2-3%. You can short the overpriced thing all you want, but you're gonna run out of cash waiting for it to fall. Got me. I keep expecting this long, slow boom to end and reset everything. I've been expecting it for a decade. So what the hell do I know.

anthonypasq 7y ago

> a currency that has no real value other than the faith people have in it this is how all currencies work

jfengel 7y ago
Some currencies require less faith than others. Like when a large organization with an enormous infrastructure insists on paying in that currency and demands payments in that currency. And when that large organization is in control of the land you live on -- including depending on that organization to defend that land in case of invasion. There's a whole lot more behind those currencies than with Canadian Tire Money or Flooz. When you live in the place you're committed in a way that you just aren't with any other currency. Losing faith in that currency is bad for you in a way that goes far, far beyond the exchange value of a token.