4 ms·

Even if I can understand some Brexit fatigue, I believe this is a short-sighted view, even if they are out of the EU, geography won't change, so the UK will ha

by seren 7y ago

Even if I can understand some Brexit fatigue, I believe this is a short-sighted view, even if they are out of the EU, geography won't change, so the UK will have to keep cooperating with continental Europe. A weak UK, that would become the pawn of another super power, would be bad news, for both UK and EU. I think this is sad that UK is leaving but no matter what, they will remain our ally and partner.

HenryBemis 7y ago
UK has been actively acting on USA's interests for decades, nothing new here. I am a foreigner living in the and it saddens me, but you can't keep someone in a union by force. UK economy will probably get damaged but it will recover (in a couple of decades) and we will all have to thank a) David Cameron, b) BoJo, c) the voters of "Leave" for that.
- cat199 7y ago
  > UK has been actively acting on USA's interests for decades can't one say this isn't the other way around? bretton woods was basically a joint us+uk project, most macroeconomic policy & related geopolitics in the west (including EU) post wwII stems from this.. us is basically fighting iran overtly or covertly on behalf of the UK, and vietnam was massively in the french interest as some 'small' examples..
  - NeedMoreTea 7y ago
    That's a very charitable view. Bretton Woods was the US (mostly Harry White's) rejection of Keynes' plan and the best that could then be agreed. As a result it has a very US flavour. Not especially surprising considering most nations were near bankruptcy at the time with the sole exception of the USA. What resulted in the shape of the IMF and World bank was far different to envisaged and provided none of the speculative and recession control. History has mostly backed up Keynes' opinion, though it worked sort-of reasonably until Nixon abandoned the gold standard. Edit: Far more of the last 40 years geopolitics and economics stems from the oil crisis and the chaos of the immediately following years than Bretton Woods.
norswap 7y ago
If any positive may come out of this debacle, it's to set a precedent that leaving the EU is a bad idea.
- IG_Semmelweiss 7y ago
  No. The positive outcome will be that: - set in stone that it is possible to leave the EU bureaucracy - set a role model on how not to leave the EU The fact that the UK has done a piss-poor job of taking advantage of an unprecedented opportunity does not negate the fact that leaving, if done properly, is a once-in-a-lifetime good opportunity.
- emn13 7y ago
  Well, maybe. The future of the EU isn't safe beyond all doubt, so there's a risk this'll turn into a self-fulfilling prophesy of EU doom. i.e. Despite the shock of brexit causing EU support to rise pretty much everywhere (IIRC including in the UK, but I'm not sure on that one), most italians are still decidedly negative (which is relevant because post-brexit Italy would be the #3 EU economy). If Brexit were to be followed by an It-exit or even merely systematic subversion, that could seriously undermine the EU. Note also that some of the former soviet-block countries have governments currently that are much more euro-hostile that their populace, and they might well try a to undermine the EU as much as possible as long as they can do so without being voted out. And furthermore, if some other countries were doubting their options, I'm not sure they'd compare themselves too much to the UK. There's simply been so much incompetence on the UK government's part that it's hard to believe any other country would need to follow their example. A little more strategically played exit might have been a lot less painful. Well- assuming Brexit happens at all anyhow, which is pretty much anyone's guess at this point.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - Silhouette 7y ago
    The future of the EU isn't safe beyond all doubt, so there's a risk this'll turn into a self-fulfilling prophesy of EU doom. There is certainly more potential downside than a lot of people seem to realise. The EU27 member states are not going to be affected in some uniform way by Brexit, particularly if we get the no-deal version without any sort of overall orderly transition. Those states that are particularly exposed to Brexit overall -- such as Ireland and the Netherlands -- stand to take a large economic hit, perhaps even worse than the UK itself in the Irish case. Other states may do fine in many respects, but specific industries or other collaborative efforts may be seriously affected. This is why I find the Irish government's strategy puzzling: they continue to insist on a measure that has been a proven deal-breaker for an orderly withdrawal, which means unless they genuinely believe that the UK will fold and call the whole thing off, their strategy is almost certain to cause the maximum damage of any plausible outcome to their own country. It's also worth saying, because it is relevant but rarely reported, that the economic models for different scenarios and how much effect they would have on various European countries' economies relative to a baseline no Brexit case do tend to assume that in the baseline the EU economy continues as-is or grows significantly. I have yet to see any serious economic model that compares outcomes for different types of Brexit against a no-Brexit scenario where the underlying problems with EU economics do then cause another serious problem or there is some sort of black swan event that affects the EU or Eurozone.

by seren 7y ago

HenryBemis 7y ago

UK has been actively acting on USA's interests for decades, nothing new here. I am a foreigner living in the and it saddens me, but you can't keep someone in a union by force. UK economy will probably get damaged but it will recover (in a couple of decades) and we will all have to thank a) David Cameron, b) BoJo, c) the voters of "Leave" for that.

cat199 7y ago
> UK has been actively acting on USA's interests for decades can't one say this isn't the other way around? bretton woods was basically a joint us+uk project, most macroeconomic policy & related geopolitics in the west (including EU) post wwII stems from this.. us is basically fighting iran overtly or covertly on behalf of the UK, and vietnam was massively in the french interest as some 'small' examples..
- NeedMoreTea 7y ago
  That's a very charitable view. Bretton Woods was the US (mostly Harry White's) rejection of Keynes' plan and the best that could then be agreed. As a result it has a very US flavour. Not especially surprising considering most nations were near bankruptcy at the time with the sole exception of the USA. What resulted in the shape of the IMF and World bank was far different to envisaged and provided none of the speculative and recession control. History has mostly backed up Keynes' opinion, though it worked sort-of reasonably until Nixon abandoned the gold standard. Edit: Far more of the last 40 years geopolitics and economics stems from the oil crisis and the chaos of the immediately following years than Bretton Woods.

norswap 7y ago

If any positive may come out of this debacle, it's to set a precedent that leaving the EU is a bad idea.

IG_Semmelweiss 7y ago
No. The positive outcome will be that: - set in stone that it is possible to leave the EU bureaucracy - set a role model on how not to leave the EU The fact that the UK has done a piss-poor job of taking advantage of an unprecedented opportunity does not negate the fact that leaving, if done properly, is a once-in-a-lifetime good opportunity.
emn13 7y ago
Well, maybe. The future of the EU isn't safe beyond all doubt, so there's a risk this'll turn into a self-fulfilling prophesy of EU doom. i.e. Despite the shock of brexit causing EU support to rise pretty much everywhere (IIRC including in the UK, but I'm not sure on that one), most italians are still decidedly negative (which is relevant because post-brexit Italy would be the #3 EU economy). If Brexit were to be followed by an It-exit or even merely systematic subversion, that could seriously undermine the EU. Note also that some of the former soviet-block countries have governments currently that are much more euro-hostile that their populace, and they might well try a to undermine the EU as much as possible as long as they can do so without being voted out. And furthermore, if some other countries were doubting their options, I'm not sure they'd compare themselves too much to the UK. There's simply been so much incompetence on the UK government's part that it's hard to believe any other country would need to follow their example. A little more strategically played exit might have been a lot less painful. Well- assuming Brexit happens at all anyhow, which is pretty much anyone's guess at this point.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- Silhouette 7y ago
  The future of the EU isn't safe beyond all doubt, so there's a risk this'll turn into a self-fulfilling prophesy of EU doom. There is certainly more potential downside than a lot of people seem to realise. The EU27 member states are not going to be affected in some uniform way by Brexit, particularly if we get the no-deal version without any sort of overall orderly transition. Those states that are particularly exposed to Brexit overall -- such as Ireland and the Netherlands -- stand to take a large economic hit, perhaps even worse than the UK itself in the Irish case. Other states may do fine in many respects, but specific industries or other collaborative efforts may be seriously affected. This is why I find the Irish government's strategy puzzling: they continue to insist on a measure that has been a proven deal-breaker for an orderly withdrawal, which means unless they genuinely believe that the UK will fold and call the whole thing off, their strategy is almost certain to cause the maximum damage of any plausible outcome to their own country. It's also worth saying, because it is relevant but rarely reported, that the economic models for different scenarios and how much effect they would have on various European countries' economies relative to a baseline no Brexit case do tend to assume that in the baseline the EU economy continues as-is or grows significantly. I have yet to see any serious economic model that compares outcomes for different types of Brexit against a no-Brexit scenario where the underlying problems with EU economics do then cause another serious problem or there is some sort of black swan event that affects the EU or Eurozone.