4 ms·

It is, but considering the estimated $1T market and all players having some exponential growth-looking curves (IIRC) the difference is pretty insignificant. I'

It is, but considering the estimated $1T market and all players having some exponential growth-looking curves (IIRC) the difference is pretty insignificant. I'll hold on to my stock in all these companies for a bit longer. I don't think there'll be any losers in this race.

pmart123 7y ago
But startups use Oracle according to Oracle...
scarface74 7y ago
Sounds like every deck pitch from a non profitable startup trying to get another round of funding... “The market we are in is projected to be worth X. If we only get Y percent our revenues will be Z”...
- knorker 7y ago
  It would, except the tapped market is 30+11+8 billion dollars today, and honestly do you doubt that the market is anything less than hundreds of billions? There are a lot of companies out there who should focus on their business model and not be in the DC-running-business. Also, Google, Amazon and Microsoft don't need your funding, thank you. They're very profitable already.
  - scarface74 7y ago
    I’m not talking about funding, I’m more referring to just because the market is big, doesn’t mean that GCP can take advantage of it. Amazon has first mover advantage and Microsoft is entrenched in the Enterprise. Just going by the old adage of “No one ever got fired for buying IBM”, AWS is the safe reputations choice because “everyone” uses AWS and Azure is safe because enterprise companies have decades of trusting Microsoft.
    - knorker 7y ago
      What I'm saying is that the exponential growth specific numbers matter. The current division doesn't. And also if GCP "only" ends up with 10% then that's a lot. Amazon could have the best exponent. Could be. Doesn't make the other two losers.
dragonwriter 7y ago
> It is, but considering the estimated $1T market and all players having some exponential growth-looking curves (IIRC) the difference is pretty insignificant. Last article I saw (which, weirdly, spun this as Amazon losing dominance to Microsoft) had AWS with twice MS’s cloud year-over-year growth rate (that is, twice the base in the exponential formula) as well as a bigger current slice of the pie. Exponential growth doesn't make differences insignificant if the rates aren't equal (though I guess the starting difference is less important than the rate difference over the long term.)
- knorker 7y ago
  I agree entirely. My point, in fact, is that the exponents base is all that matters, and current market share doesn't. All three are able to take the whole cake if they sign the customers, and so it's up to the exponent base to decide how the $1T is split up. That is, all three have the logistics, infrastructure, and partners in place to scale up if they need to. And they don't have to worry much if DigitalOcean has higher exponent base since DO wouldn't know what to do if they were offered a $10B deal. The big three would.

pmart123 7y ago

But startups use Oracle according to Oracle...

scarface74 7y ago

Sounds like every deck pitch from a non profitable startup trying to get another round of funding... “The market we are in is projected to be worth X. If we only get Y percent our revenues will be Z”...

knorker 7y ago
It would, except the tapped market is 30+11+8 billion dollars today, and honestly do you doubt that the market is anything less than hundreds of billions? There are a lot of companies out there who should focus on their business model and not be in the DC-running-business. Also, Google, Amazon and Microsoft don't need your funding, thank you. They're very profitable already.
- scarface74 7y ago
  I’m not talking about funding, I’m more referring to just because the market is big, doesn’t mean that GCP can take advantage of it. Amazon has first mover advantage and Microsoft is entrenched in the Enterprise. Just going by the old adage of “No one ever got fired for buying IBM”, AWS is the safe reputations choice because “everyone” uses AWS and Azure is safe because enterprise companies have decades of trusting Microsoft.
  - knorker 7y ago
    What I'm saying is that the exponential growth specific numbers matter. The current division doesn't. And also if GCP "only" ends up with 10% then that's a lot. Amazon could have the best exponent. Could be. Doesn't make the other two losers.

dragonwriter 7y ago

> It is, but considering the estimated $1T market and all players having some exponential growth-looking curves (IIRC) the difference is pretty insignificant. Last article I saw (which, weirdly, spun this as Amazon losing dominance to Microsoft) had AWS with twice MS’s cloud year-over-year growth rate (that is, twice the base in the exponential formula) as well as a bigger current slice of the pie. Exponential growth doesn't make differences insignificant if the rates aren't equal (though I guess the starting difference is less important than the rate difference over the long term.)

knorker 7y ago
I agree entirely. My point, in fact, is that the exponents base is all that matters, and current market share doesn't. All three are able to take the whole cake if they sign the customers, and so it's up to the exponent base to decide how the $1T is split up. That is, all three have the logistics, infrastructure, and partners in place to scale up if they need to. And they don't have to worry much if DigitalOcean has higher exponent base since DO wouldn't know what to do if they were offered a $10B deal. The big three would.