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I highly recommend Kurzweil's "The Age of Spiritual Machines" for many predictions like these, with a detailed timeline. According to him, being able to simulat

by f00zz 7y ago

I highly recommend Kurzweil's "The Age of Spiritual Machines" for many predictions like these, with a detailed timeline. According to him, being able to simulate human-level intelligence on a computer is simple matter of having enough processing power, which he estimates at 20 petaflops. He also predicts we'd be able to buy 20 petaflops for US$ 1k around 2009, IIRC. (Edit: had to check - he actually wrote 2020. Looking forward to it.) (It's a fun book though, I like it. Except for the creepy bits on cybersex.)

perl4ever 7y ago
That sounds like a classic example of assuming a sigmoid curve is purely exponential.
thr2131adf 7y ago
> is simple matter of having enough processing power Isn't this provably false though ? I don't think the openworm project has gotten anywhere near simulating C.elegans.
taneq 7y ago
> According to him, being able to simulate human-level intelligence on a computer is simple matter of having enough processing power I've never understood this argument. It seems about as logical as claiming that the human brain uses about 20 watts of power and so if we can make a computer use 20 watts, it'll become conscious.