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The Sky Is Falling

15 points by ivankirigin 18y ago

ivankirigin 18y ago
video here: http://www.theatlantic.com/movies/rocks/ http://www.theatlantic.com/movies/rocks/
josefresco 18y ago
very, very good article, most shocking was that the US Air Force is currently the #2 space agency in the world (in funding)
Leon 18y ago
yeah, great, 'Why isn't NASA doing more about this?' Let's blame an underfunded agency whose government won't give them enough to accomplish what they ask of them (remember how we're suppose to go to mars sometime?). NASA is doing great things with little funding it has, so let's not forget how expensive space travel/exploration/intra-sol magic really is. The agency is pretty much controlled in what it does by government directives, how can we blame them for not being able to pursue every space plan? Plus this article sure does a number on statistical fallacies, 'Even if space strikes are likely only once every million years, that doesn’t mean a million years will pass before the next impact—the sky could suddenly darken tomorrow' Yeah, great, fear-mongering space object impacts. Remember people: you could win the lottery tomorrow. But you won't.
- ivankirigin 18y ago
  Each shuttle flight costs $1B. How do you justify even a single one?
- anamax 18y ago
  > NASA is doing great things with little funding it has, so let's not forget how expensive space travel/exploration/intra-sol magic really is. How much of that expense is self-inflicted?
gojomo 18y ago
Easterbrook also wrote a prophetic warning about the Space Shuttle before its first launch, nearly 6 years before the Challenger disaster. [1] That gives me an extra sense of unease about the dangers he's identified here. [1] "Beam Me Out Of This Death Trap, Scotty," April 1980, http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2001/8004.easterbrook-fulltext.html http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2001/8004.easterbr...
helveticaman 18y ago
The odds that a potentially devastating space rock will hit Earth this century may be as high as 1 in 10. So why isn’t NASA trying harder to prevent catastrophe? Because they may be 1 it 10. They are not really 1 in 10.
- ivankirigin 18y ago
  The issue is finding the occurrence of such events in history. The more you find, the more likely it makes such an event. We have a lower bound that is most certainly an underestimate. NASA isn't even working hard to find a more accurate estimate.
deleted 18y ago
[deleted]
DaniFong 18y ago
Hey, it's Nathan Myhrvold again. “The odds of a space-object strike during your lifetime may be no more than the odds you will die in a plane crash—but with space rocks, it’s like the entire human race is riding on the plane.”

15 points by ivankirigin 18y ago

video here: http://www.theatlantic.com/movies/rocks/ http://www.theatlantic.com/movies/rocks/

very, very good article, most shocking was that the US Air Force is currently the #2 space agency in the world (in funding)

Leon 18y ago

yeah, great, 'Why isn't NASA doing more about this?' Let's blame an underfunded agency whose government won't give them enough to accomplish what they ask of them (remember how we're suppose to go to mars sometime?). NASA is doing great things with little funding it has, so let's not forget how expensive space travel/exploration/intra-sol magic really is. The agency is pretty much controlled in what it does by government directives, how can we blame them for not being able to pursue every space plan? Plus this article sure does a number on statistical fallacies, 'Even if space strikes are likely only once every million years, that doesn’t mean a million years will pass before the next impact—the sky could suddenly darken tomorrow' Yeah, great, fear-mongering space object impacts. Remember people: you could win the lottery tomorrow. But you won't.

ivankirigin 18y ago
Each shuttle flight costs $1B. How do you justify even a single one?
anamax 18y ago
> NASA is doing great things with little funding it has, so let's not forget how expensive space travel/exploration/intra-sol magic really is. How much of that expense is self-inflicted?

gojomo 18y ago

Easterbrook also wrote a prophetic warning about the Space Shuttle before its first launch, nearly 6 years before the Challenger disaster. [1] That gives me an extra sense of unease about the dangers he's identified here. [1] "Beam Me Out Of This Death Trap, Scotty," April 1980, http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2001/8004.easterbrook-fulltext.html http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2001/8004.easterbr...

helveticaman 18y ago

The odds that a potentially devastating space rock will hit Earth this century may be as high as 1 in 10. So why isn’t NASA trying harder to prevent catastrophe? Because they may be 1 it 10. They are not really 1 in 10.

ivankirigin 18y ago
The issue is finding the occurrence of such events in history. The more you find, the more likely it makes such an event. We have a lower bound that is most certainly an underestimate. NASA isn't even working hard to find a more accurate estimate.

deleted 18y ago

[deleted]

DaniFong 18y ago

Hey, it's Nathan Myhrvold again. “The odds of a space-object strike during your lifetime may be no more than the odds you will die in a plane crash—but with space rocks, it’s like the entire human race is riding on the plane.”