6 ms·

False. The US is able. Just not willing.

by Bud 7y ago

peteretep 7y ago
Go on, how would the US intervene militarily here? This isn't Island Fortress Taiwan, where there's already a base and a sizeable strait between it and the mainland.
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago
  > how would the US intervene militarily here? Park a carrier strike group offshore, guarantee safe passage and refugee status to any Hong Kong resident wanting it, and provide transport to a host country. It would take tremendous political will and resources. But this would be the non-violent, humanitarian and decisive way to intervene.
  - sametmax 7y ago
    China would respond with putting a navy embargo on their territorial waters, blocking it. Now what ?
    - pas 7y ago
      Airlift the people out. After all HK has the right to conduct its own foreign policy.
      - sametmax 7y ago
        The Chinese army will just block the few places where you can land with infantry. At which point do you think the first bullet of the war fires ?
        pas 7y ago
        If they occupy the city and don't allow people to leave, that certainly will create problems for them (more and more reeducation camps). Sure, it's not like anyone can or willing to do much about that, but the UK can play the Russian game (with some help from NATO), and provide help for the BN(O) people. Shooting would be almost inevitable, but that at least establishes that there is a problem. And why would Xi risk WW3, he and China has the most to lose, after all the future, with the current trajectory of the world looks to be theirs!
PKop 7y ago
What would they be able to do? They couldn't even oust Assad in Syria, and many many fewer casualties in the middle east became untenable politically. Spell out the details of what you think is possible to accomplish here?
- rtpg 7y ago
  Not military, but the US could impose targeted sanctions to Chinese actors just like they have regarding Russian behavior. It's not a guaranteed success but it would be sending a very strong signal. Better than nothing, perhaps
  - PKop 7y ago
    They're in the middle of a trade war, which it seems both sides are looking to de-escalate. I don't think US wants to pressure on other matters, nor do I think it is in the interests of American citizens to do so. China could just as easily see as act of war or at very least, threatening their sovereignty. Maybe they sell their treasuries or restrict rare earths, or simply cut off supplies amongst their $400 Billion goods surplus with the US. I really don't think they'll allow themselves to be pushed around on this, out of general principle.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
  - sametmax 7y ago
    It didn't even make the Russians blip.
tanilama 7y ago
Unless US wants WWIII.
flyinglizard 7y ago
Hong Kong is not Taiwan. It’s a part of China and pretty much indefensible geographically. Defending it from military forces coming from the mainland is foolish. US should strengthen its support of Taiwan in retaliation.
sametmax 7y ago
The US medias overhyped the country for so long now that I think you really believe you could make it a guaranteed win. I don't think you can: - China has the nuclear weapon, a space program, allies and no ethics or politics to slow them down. - nobody won the cold war, and Russia was way less economically viable than China - China has 1.3 billions people it is willing to sacrifice while the US has 4 time less, half of it being obese, plus they must censor the pics of coffins coming back from war because dying americans is not acceptable. - China host all the factories, and provide a huge chunks of primary resources to the US. - China is capable of being self-sufficient rapidly, as they have the land and the capabilities of going back to manual labor. - China army has millenias of terrifying history. It may very well be still here in 10000 years. The US has 500 years of history, total. - The US never entered a war that would affect their borders. Up till then, they brought the fire far from home, giving a false sense of indestructibility to their population. China is your neighbor. - Attacking China means WWIII, it's not sure humanity can even survive it.
chvid 7y ago
What makes you think US is not already intervening? People assume that an intervention would be ships and helicopters showing up with people dancing in the streets like in some sort of movie. Regime change does not look like that. It looks Venezuela, Libya, Iran ... And starts with a long information campaign.
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  > It looks Venezuela, Libya, Iran ... Given these examples, Hong Kong would be much better off without such intervention.
  - chvid 7y ago
    Certainly in the short run ...
    - TeMPOraL 7y ago
      Short run, mid run, and long run. Iraq and Libya are broken states right now because the US intervened overtly. That covers short and mid run. Iran is making problems today and receiving international flak only because the US intervened covertly and fucked up. That covers the long term.
      - Grue3 7y ago
        >Iraq and Libya are broken states right now because the US intervened overtly. That's like saying Germany was a broken state after US intervened in WW2. I mean, it was literally broken up, but it didn't have an insane dictator committing mass scale human rights abuses anymore.
        TeMPOraL 7y ago
        It isn't. WW2 was a world war, and Germany was hell-bent on world domination and genocide. The US and its allies being under direct threat is a different situation than preemptively destroying nations to further US political goals.

False. The US is able. Just not willing.

by Bud 7y ago

False. The US is able. Just not willing.

Go on, how would the US intervene militarily here? This isn't Island Fortress Taiwan, where there's already a base and a sizeable strait between it and the mainland.

JumpCrisscross 7y ago
> how would the US intervene militarily here? Park a carrier strike group offshore, guarantee safe passage and refugee status to any Hong Kong resident wanting it, and provide transport to a host country. It would take tremendous political will and resources. But this would be the non-violent, humanitarian and decisive way to intervene.
- sametmax 7y ago
  China would respond with putting a navy embargo on their territorial waters, blocking it. Now what ?
  - pas 7y ago
    Airlift the people out. After all HK has the right to conduct its own foreign policy.
    - sametmax 7y ago
      The Chinese army will just block the few places where you can land with infantry. At which point do you think the first bullet of the war fires ?
      - pas 7y ago
        If they occupy the city and don't allow people to leave, that certainly will create problems for them (more and more reeducation camps). Sure, it's not like anyone can or willing to do much about that, but the UK can play the Russian game (with some help from NATO), and provide help for the BN(O) people. Shooting would be almost inevitable, but that at least establishes that there is a problem. And why would Xi risk WW3, he and China has the most to lose, after all the future, with the current trajectory of the world looks to be theirs!

PKop 7y ago

What would they be able to do? They couldn't even oust Assad in Syria, and many many fewer casualties in the middle east became untenable politically. Spell out the details of what you think is possible to accomplish here?

rtpg 7y ago
Not military, but the US could impose targeted sanctions to Chinese actors just like they have regarding Russian behavior. It's not a guaranteed success but it would be sending a very strong signal. Better than nothing, perhaps
- PKop 7y ago
  They're in the middle of a trade war, which it seems both sides are looking to de-escalate. I don't think US wants to pressure on other matters, nor do I think it is in the interests of American citizens to do so. China could just as easily see as act of war or at very least, threatening their sovereignty. Maybe they sell their treasuries or restrict rare earths, or simply cut off supplies amongst their $400 Billion goods surplus with the US. I really don't think they'll allow themselves to be pushed around on this, out of general principle.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- sametmax 7y ago
  It didn't even make the Russians blip.

tanilama 7y ago

Unless US wants WWIII.

flyinglizard 7y ago

Hong Kong is not Taiwan. It’s a part of China and pretty much indefensible geographically. Defending it from military forces coming from the mainland is foolish. US should strengthen its support of Taiwan in retaliation.

sametmax 7y ago

The US medias overhyped the country for so long now that I think you really believe you could make it a guaranteed win. I don't think you can: - China has the nuclear weapon, a space program, allies and no ethics or politics to slow them down. - nobody won the cold war, and Russia was way less economically viable than China - China has 1.3 billions people it is willing to sacrifice while the US has 4 time less, half of it being obese, plus they must censor the pics of coffins coming back from war because dying americans is not acceptable. - China host all the factories, and provide a huge chunks of primary resources to the US. - China is capable of being self-sufficient rapidly, as they have the land and the capabilities of going back to manual labor. - China army has millenias of terrifying history. It may very well be still here in 10000 years. The US has 500 years of history, total. - The US never entered a war that would affect their borders. Up till then, they brought the fire far from home, giving a false sense of indestructibility to their population. China is your neighbor. - Attacking China means WWIII, it's not sure humanity can even survive it.

chvid 7y ago

What makes you think US is not already intervening? People assume that an intervention would be ships and helicopters showing up with people dancing in the streets like in some sort of movie. Regime change does not look like that. It looks Venezuela, Libya, Iran ... And starts with a long information campaign.

TeMPOraL 7y ago
> It looks Venezuela, Libya, Iran ... Given these examples, Hong Kong would be much better off without such intervention.
- chvid 7y ago
  Certainly in the short run ...
  - TeMPOraL 7y ago
    Short run, mid run, and long run. Iraq and Libya are broken states right now because the US intervened overtly. That covers short and mid run. Iran is making problems today and receiving international flak only because the US intervened covertly and fucked up. That covers the long term.
    - Grue3 7y ago
      >Iraq and Libya are broken states right now because the US intervened overtly. That's like saying Germany was a broken state after US intervened in WW2. I mean, it was literally broken up, but it didn't have an insane dictator committing mass scale human rights abuses anymore.
      - TeMPOraL 7y ago
        It isn't. WW2 was a world war, and Germany was hell-bent on world domination and genocide. The US and its allies being under direct threat is a different situation than preemptively destroying nations to further US political goals.