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Anyone not expecting this? It's fairly clear that the newest bridge to the peninsula was directly intended to enable such intervention. This is not a judgemen

by r00fus 7y ago

Anyone not expecting this? It's fairly clear that the newest bridge to the peninsula was directly intended to enable such intervention. This is not a judgement against China, but a nation that plans massive infrastructure projects, has a history of single-party rule (and rule by dynastic monarchs) and also is responsible for the Uighur re-education camps, doesn't really sound like a country unwilling to wield it's military might. While it's citizenry and residents are much more diverse and identify not as Chinese but seperate, HK has historically been part of China, and only really a separate state/entity for a couple of centuries.

pm90 7y ago
Using the military on an backwater province is different from deploying troops to a dense city filled with millions of people. Not saying they might not still do it, just pointing out that a PLA invasion of HK would command significant attention and sympathy worldwide.
- alasdair_ 7y ago
  >Using the military on an backwater province is different from deploying troops to a dense city filled with millions of people. Not saying they might not still do it, just pointing out that a PLA invasion of HK would command significant attention and sympathy worldwide. And, sadly, like in Tienanmen Square, little would change. The "international community" may condemn the violence and human rights abuses but, well, the "international community" still does business in Saudi Arabia, so the chance of the condemnation changing anything seems minimal.
  - avip 7y ago
    Pretty apt "Where was Gondor" case. HK-ers are alone. No one will help them.
  - luckydata 7y ago
    Tienanmen and how little the West leaned on China for that is the original sin that led us to the current situation. It's essentially the West' fault for not cutting ties and putting sanctions on China immediately after that. We're paying the price for our cheap electronics.
    - pas 7y ago
      Agreed. Not because it would have helped much, but at least we wouldn't have gotten into this dependency mess.
- dis-sys 7y ago
  > PLA invasion of HK Did the 1st Marine Division invade LA in 1992?
  - jdc 7y ago
    Does LA have its own multi-party legislature, legal system, monetary system, immigration policy, official languages, postal system, and educational system?
  - lettergram 7y ago
    I do think there’s a difference in that the city of LA had armed bands fighting each other. In this case, it’s the government vs protesters. The protesters want some laws changed to ensure they aren’t extradited and disappeared. In LA there were thugs looting stores and the store owners shooting at them. Hing Kong will go back peacefully if they have the Chinese government back down. Hing Kong is also essentially a client state to a large degree. So, invasion isn’t exactly a wrong way to describe it.
    - cdmckay 7y ago
      The LA riots weren’t “thugs looting stores”. It was an oppressed minority rising up against decades of racial oppression.
      - pas 7y ago
        Yes, by looting stores run by their neighbors (who usually were also of the same minority).
- peteretep 7y ago
  > a PLA invasion of HK would command significant attention and sympathy worldwide Which probably doesn't matter one iota, given Tibet, BUT: it's going to be hard to hide that invasion from mainland Chinese who live in big cities, and may just start asking some difficult questions. If you live in Shanghai -- or I guess more to the point in Shenzen -- you'll have to work quite hard to see why you might not be next
  - 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
    If you live in Shenzhen or Shanghai, aren't you already fully under PRC control? China invading HK would certainly make peaceful reunification with Taiwan impossible though.
    - luckydata 7y ago
      It's already impossible.
    - peteretep 7y ago
      Yes, you are, as were the demonstrators in Tiananmen. I think my point is: it’s one thing to watch your government put down the “other” — Turkic Muslims, kinda-Indian Buddhists — but when they start coming for people who look and live like you, it’s liable to give you a moment’s pause. I think the risk of unrest spreading is much higher in this case.
  - barry-cotter 7y ago
    Mainland Chinese are well aware of what’s going on in Hong Kong. And whether you’re in Shanghai or Shenzhen there’s no question of you being next; this is already the reality you live in.
    - my_username_is_ 7y ago
      I'm not as close to the situation right now, but several mainland Chinese people that I talked to following the mid-June protests (up to 2m protesters) hadn't heard of any of it happening
9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
Mainland China has 19 miles of land border with Hong Kong, it hardly needs to ship its tanks through the Macau-Zhuhai bridge. Also, the PLA already has about 6,000 troops stationed in HK: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Hong_Kong_Garrison https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Hon...
tombh 7y ago
I find it odd that in all the articles and discussions I've seen about this, the Opium Wars are never talked about. Of course violence is never justification for more violence, but seeing as Hong Kong's very existence is based on the worst of human exploitation, it's hard to imagine that it's ever going to have a calm future. I can't help but think that for us Europeans it touches the nerve where we know at some level that all our chickens will come home to roost like this one day?
- dbuder 7y ago
  Honestly I always see it brought up and always assume it is the work of shills.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
shalmanese 7y ago
I don't know where this conspiracy theory came from but it's patently absurd. Hong Kong already shares a river border with Shenzhen on which there are at least 7 ~100m long bridges as well as 1 ~3km long bridge that can put Chinese tanks directly onto HK New Territories. The HK-Zhuhai-Macau bridge is a 55km long bridge connecting a 8x smaller city in China to Lantau Island which then requires another separate two bridge crossing to reach the New Territories (and then another to reach HK Island). The military strategic value of this bridge is less than nil. The bridge was built for its stated purpose which was to increase integration and economic growth of the Greater Bay Area. The indirect effect of this is to tie HK's economy more deeply into the Mainland's so that HK becomes assimilated but there this was plainly stated from the beginning of the project.

by r00fus 7y ago

pm90 7y ago

Using the military on an backwater province is different from deploying troops to a dense city filled with millions of people. Not saying they might not still do it, just pointing out that a PLA invasion of HK would command significant attention and sympathy worldwide.

alasdair_ 7y ago
>Using the military on an backwater province is different from deploying troops to a dense city filled with millions of people. Not saying they might not still do it, just pointing out that a PLA invasion of HK would command significant attention and sympathy worldwide. And, sadly, like in Tienanmen Square, little would change. The "international community" may condemn the violence and human rights abuses but, well, the "international community" still does business in Saudi Arabia, so the chance of the condemnation changing anything seems minimal.
- avip 7y ago
  Pretty apt "Where was Gondor" case. HK-ers are alone. No one will help them.
- luckydata 7y ago
  Tienanmen and how little the West leaned on China for that is the original sin that led us to the current situation. It's essentially the West' fault for not cutting ties and putting sanctions on China immediately after that. We're paying the price for our cheap electronics.
  - pas 7y ago
    Agreed. Not because it would have helped much, but at least we wouldn't have gotten into this dependency mess.
dis-sys 7y ago
> PLA invasion of HK Did the 1st Marine Division invade LA in 1992?
- jdc 7y ago
  Does LA have its own multi-party legislature, legal system, monetary system, immigration policy, official languages, postal system, and educational system?
- lettergram 7y ago
  I do think there’s a difference in that the city of LA had armed bands fighting each other. In this case, it’s the government vs protesters. The protesters want some laws changed to ensure they aren’t extradited and disappeared. In LA there were thugs looting stores and the store owners shooting at them. Hing Kong will go back peacefully if they have the Chinese government back down. Hing Kong is also essentially a client state to a large degree. So, invasion isn’t exactly a wrong way to describe it.
  - cdmckay 7y ago
    The LA riots weren’t “thugs looting stores”. It was an oppressed minority rising up against decades of racial oppression.
    - pas 7y ago
      Yes, by looting stores run by their neighbors (who usually were also of the same minority).
peteretep 7y ago
> a PLA invasion of HK would command significant attention and sympathy worldwide Which probably doesn't matter one iota, given Tibet, BUT: it's going to be hard to hide that invasion from mainland Chinese who live in big cities, and may just start asking some difficult questions. If you live in Shanghai -- or I guess more to the point in Shenzen -- you'll have to work quite hard to see why you might not be next
- 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
  If you live in Shenzhen or Shanghai, aren't you already fully under PRC control? China invading HK would certainly make peaceful reunification with Taiwan impossible though.
  - luckydata 7y ago
    It's already impossible.
  - peteretep 7y ago
    Yes, you are, as were the demonstrators in Tiananmen. I think my point is: it’s one thing to watch your government put down the “other” — Turkic Muslims, kinda-Indian Buddhists — but when they start coming for people who look and live like you, it’s liable to give you a moment’s pause. I think the risk of unrest spreading is much higher in this case.
- barry-cotter 7y ago
  Mainland Chinese are well aware of what’s going on in Hong Kong. And whether you’re in Shanghai or Shenzhen there’s no question of you being next; this is already the reality you live in.
  - my_username_is_ 7y ago
    I'm not as close to the situation right now, but several mainland Chinese people that I talked to following the mid-June protests (up to 2m protesters) hadn't heard of any of it happening

9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago

Mainland China has 19 miles of land border with Hong Kong, it hardly needs to ship its tanks through the Macau-Zhuhai bridge. Also, the PLA already has about 6,000 troops stationed in HK: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Hong_Kong_Garrison https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Hon...

tombh 7y ago

I find it odd that in all the articles and discussions I've seen about this, the Opium Wars are never talked about. Of course violence is never justification for more violence, but seeing as Hong Kong's very existence is based on the worst of human exploitation, it's hard to imagine that it's ever going to have a calm future. I can't help but think that for us Europeans it touches the nerve where we know at some level that all our chickens will come home to roost like this one day?

dbuder 7y ago
Honestly I always see it brought up and always assume it is the work of shills.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

shalmanese 7y ago

I don't know where this conspiracy theory came from but it's patently absurd. Hong Kong already shares a river border with Shenzhen on which there are at least 7 ~100m long bridges as well as 1 ~3km long bridge that can put Chinese tanks directly onto HK New Territories. The HK-Zhuhai-Macau bridge is a 55km long bridge connecting a 8x smaller city in China to Lantau Island which then requires another separate two bridge crossing to reach the New Territories (and then another to reach HK Island). The military strategic value of this bridge is less than nil. The bridge was built for its stated purpose which was to increase integration and economic growth of the Greater Bay Area. The indirect effect of this is to tie HK's economy more deeply into the Mainland's so that HK becomes assimilated but there this was plainly stated from the beginning of the project.