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By the time you can tell imminent recession from Google Trends it's too late to do something about it.
by dabei 7y ago
By the time you can tell imminent recession from Google Trends it's too late to do something about it.
- User23 7y agoThe article specifically states why they believe it is a leading indicator. For example people search for [unemployment] when they hear the rumors of layoffs or otherwise are worried, not after they happen.
- tcbawo 7y agoHedge funds don't use Google trends as an indicator. They hire photographers with infrared lenses to gauge the inventory of oil refineries and shipping depots, or buy non-public location/foot traffic. I would not be surprised if spotting a trend online actually would be too late to be actionable.
- User23 7y agoGiven their recent performance, why would you extol the acumen of hedge funds? Despite a recent bounce, they still can't even beat the S&P 500, which has no load funds available. Hedge funds are a tool for making hedge fund managers money, not their investors.
- tcbawo 7y agoExtolling? No. My point is that hedge funds have resources and smart people working on signals that they will trade on before you see them in Google trends. Also, some hedge funds do well while others do not. Most are very secretive and many have proprietary investment arms that are wildly profitable.
- CuriouslyC 7y agoWildly profitable in the short term. A lot of funds also fail. In the long term there is too much money to be made by demonstrating your ability to consistently beat the market for the type of smoke and mirrors you're talking about to be a real thing.