In context, Gove was talking about expert political judgment applied to making short term predictions: experts predicting prompt, dire consequences from Brexit.

In context, Gove was talking about expert political judgment applied to making short term predictions: experts predicting prompt, dire consequences from Brexit. Such predictions have been the subject of academic study. One obtains gold-standard data on the accuracy of short term predictions merely by waiting. The classic book is Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11152.html https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11152.html His findings sent shocks waves through the intelligence community. What is going to happen next? Answering that question is raison d'être of the intelligence community. They depend on expert political judgment and Tetlock had found that it was rubbish. This prompted the Good Judgment Project https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/439-the-good-judgment-project https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2...