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I think this shows the difference between a regime like physics where we expect models to generally work, versus another kind of regime like the stock market wh

by bo1024 7y ago

I think this shows the difference between a regime like physics where we expect models to generally work, versus another kind of regime like the stock market where it's unclear whether they work. The point of the above quote is that in some regimes, models [that we can currently build] don't work. So the lesson to take away from a bad prediction isn't "this model is bad", it's "any model I build will be bad". There might not be enough signal in the data you have (or even is possible to have). It's exacerbated in cases where it's hard to assess the model's performance, e.g. the stock market mostly goes up so any model that predicts that will look pretty good most of the time.

teslaberry 7y ago
no , the difference between physics and complex human systems, is that complex human systems incorporate human behavior into them. George soros called this 'reflexivity'. Complex human systems possess tipping points and negative and postive feedback loops like greshams law and thiers law. in this sense, the difference, between human behavior is that it is a branch of physics that resembles the study of turbulence, it is not only notoriously unpredictable, but the element driving the unpredictability is human consciousness of it's OWN behavior ( in mass and indvidiually) einstein himself said the most mysterious fact of the human universe is that it has developed the capacity to understand itself. consciousness and the complexity of human systems IS physics at some hyper complex level, that is both self organizing and too complex to ever be distentangled as easily understood as 'deterministic' for the purposes of meaningful hard experimentation. that is why social science and other sciences are such bullshit. thankfully sound progress can be built upon bullshit as long as it is more sensible bullshit than the bullshit that came before. the foundations of our understanding of the science of human behavior are not so much built upon pylons of steel as they are recrafted from a puddle of mud and shit, by adding clay and sugar and fermenting the mass, and then removing some of the shit and leaving behind a less smelly pile . thousands of years of this process leads civilization, here, to hacker news comments containing this philosophy.

by bo1024 7y ago

teslaberry 7y ago

no , the difference between physics and complex human systems, is that complex human systems incorporate human behavior into them. George soros called this 'reflexivity'. Complex human systems possess tipping points and negative and postive feedback loops like greshams law and thiers law. in this sense, the difference, between human behavior is that it is a branch of physics that resembles the study of turbulence, it is not only notoriously unpredictable, but the element driving the unpredictability is human consciousness of it's OWN behavior ( in mass and indvidiually) einstein himself said the most mysterious fact of the human universe is that it has developed the capacity to understand itself. consciousness and the complexity of human systems IS physics at some hyper complex level, that is both self organizing and too complex to ever be distentangled as easily understood as 'deterministic' for the purposes of meaningful hard experimentation. that is why social science and other sciences are such bullshit. thankfully sound progress can be built upon bullshit as long as it is more sensible bullshit than the bullshit that came before. the foundations of our understanding of the science of human behavior are not so much built upon pylons of steel as they are recrafted from a puddle of mud and shit, by adding clay and sugar and fermenting the mass, and then removing some of the shit and leaving behind a less smelly pile . thousands of years of this process leads civilization, here, to hacker news comments containing this philosophy.