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Tim Bray: Year-end View of the Mobile Market

24 points by bensummers 16y ago

Zak 16y ago
An unencumbered high-end handset at around $500 is cheaper than the same device at $199 with a contract. I wonder if someone will notice this and offer conventional financing packages like you can get for fridges and TVs. T-mobile appears to be doing exactly that. You can get a contract with a subsidy, you can get financing on the phone and cheaper monthly service, or you can buy the phone outright and get cheaper monthly service.
- sandipc 16y ago
  unfortunately, AFAIK, T-Mobile is the only major US carrier to offer such no-contract/unsubsidized discounts
  - cosmicray 16y ago
    I would hope, and hope is a strong word, that having multiple carriers (plus MVNOs) on the interchangeable LTE bands will encourage some competition that is sorely lacking due to incompatible frequency allocations. Every spot in the US will be covered by 4 (5 is they ever find a buyer for the D block) licenses. In some locations, one carrier already has 2 of the licenses (e.g. VZW). I still see room for competitive behavior.
  - trotsky 16y ago
    Why restrict yourself to the majors? The MVNO world seems to be where the real pricing competition is.
MrScruff 16y ago
... there’s nothing fundamental in Android that would get in the way of a industrial-design and user-experience rock-star team, whether at Google or one of the handset makers, testing the hypothesis that these things are central to Apple’s success. Which is to say, it would be sort of surprising, but not that much, if this time next year, dirt-cheap iPhones were competing against Androids that push the user-experience lever farther than Apple or anyone else ever has. I keep hearing this argument that Google simply has to assemble a crack team of UI experts and they'll inevitably match or surpass Apple's offerings. Presumably Apple will equally at some point assemble a search rock-star team and push the search level farther than Google or anyone else ever has.
- trotsky 16y ago
  I agree, there are obviously elements of the iPhone OS user experience that no other high tech company has a chance of ever matching.
- ergo98 16y ago
  >I keep hearing this argument that Google simply has to assemble a crack team of UI experts and they'll inevitably match or surpass Apple's offerings. Android is already matching iOS in many areas, exceeding it in some (a superior, and more functional, notification system, and a much better messaging system, though that is subjective). With each iteration it keeps improving and improving, not by changing actual function but mostly just by decorating in a manner that iPhone users are more accustomed.
mariusmg 16y ago
WP7 will become a major player in 2011.

24 points by bensummers 16y ago

Zak 16y ago

An unencumbered high-end handset at around $500 is cheaper than the same device at $199 with a contract. I wonder if someone will notice this and offer conventional financing packages like you can get for fridges and TVs. T-mobile appears to be doing exactly that. You can get a contract with a subsidy, you can get financing on the phone and cheaper monthly service, or you can buy the phone outright and get cheaper monthly service.

sandipc 16y ago
unfortunately, AFAIK, T-Mobile is the only major US carrier to offer such no-contract/unsubsidized discounts
- cosmicray 16y ago
  I would hope, and hope is a strong word, that having multiple carriers (plus MVNOs) on the interchangeable LTE bands will encourage some competition that is sorely lacking due to incompatible frequency allocations. Every spot in the US will be covered by 4 (5 is they ever find a buyer for the D block) licenses. In some locations, one carrier already has 2 of the licenses (e.g. VZW). I still see room for competitive behavior.
- trotsky 16y ago
  Why restrict yourself to the majors? The MVNO world seems to be where the real pricing competition is.

MrScruff 16y ago

... there’s nothing fundamental in Android that would get in the way of a industrial-design and user-experience rock-star team, whether at Google or one of the handset makers, testing the hypothesis that these things are central to Apple’s success. Which is to say, it would be sort of surprising, but not that much, if this time next year, dirt-cheap iPhones were competing against Androids that push the user-experience lever farther than Apple or anyone else ever has. I keep hearing this argument that Google simply has to assemble a crack team of UI experts and they'll inevitably match or surpass Apple's offerings. Presumably Apple will equally at some point assemble a search rock-star team and push the search level farther than Google or anyone else ever has.

trotsky 16y ago
I agree, there are obviously elements of the iPhone OS user experience that no other high tech company has a chance of ever matching.
ergo98 16y ago
>I keep hearing this argument that Google simply has to assemble a crack team of UI experts and they'll inevitably match or surpass Apple's offerings. Android is already matching iOS in many areas, exceeding it in some (a superior, and more functional, notification system, and a much better messaging system, though that is subjective). With each iteration it keeps improving and improving, not by changing actual function but mostly just by decorating in a manner that iPhone users are more accustomed.

mariusmg 16y ago

WP7 will become a major player in 2011.