5 ms·
Predictions can be a tool to test your understanding, I guess maybe like a fantasy investing site to see how well you would do if you were investing real money.
by igor47 7y ago
Predictions can be a tool to test your understanding, I guess maybe like a fantasy investing site to see how well you would do if you were investing real money.
I've been playing a bunch of Metaculus[1] recently for this reason.
I do agree that there are too many folks (pundits and the like) who make predictions all the time with no consequences, and I wish there was a way to hold bad predictors to account. I've thought about making tools that automatically or with crowd sourcing track the predictions of public personas.
1: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/
- hhs 7y agoThat's a useful website, thanks. Recently, I had a similar question about websites or repositories that keep a track record of predictions/promises. If interested [0], one individual pointed to Long Bets. [0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20500998 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20500998
- klenwell 7y agoLong Bets has the famous Buffet/hedge fund wager, as well as the Ted Danson Red Sox World Series/USMT World Cup wager. Both now settled! But otherwise, it's looked a bit moribund lately to me. Here's a more active prediction site in this vein associated with Philip Tetlock of Superforecasting fame: https://www.gjopen.com/ https://www.gjopen.com/
- hhs 7y agoExcellent, thank you.