4 ms·

I only take predictions seriously if you have some stake in the outcome. Otherwise, it's easy to just casually predict something outrageous like "Trump will pro

I only take predictions seriously if you have some stake in the outcome. Otherwise, it's easy to just casually predict something outrageous like "Trump will probably quit before his term is over", and turn around and say you were kidding if it's not right, but take all the credit if it comes true. Go put $10,000 on some prediction market contract, or make a side bet with someone.. anything. One of my favorite quotes about predicting comes from Taleb: "Don't tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio."

igor47 7y ago
Predictions can be a tool to test your understanding, I guess maybe like a fantasy investing site to see how well you would do if you were investing real money. I've been playing a bunch of Metaculus[1] recently for this reason. I do agree that there are too many folks (pundits and the like) who make predictions all the time with no consequences, and I wish there was a way to hold bad predictors to account. I've thought about making tools that automatically or with crowd sourcing track the predictions of public personas. 1: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/
- hhs 7y ago
  That's a useful website, thanks. Recently, I had a similar question about websites or repositories that keep a track record of predictions/promises. If interested [0], one individual pointed to Long Bets. [0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20500998 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20500998
  - klenwell 7y ago
    Long Bets has the famous Buffet/hedge fund wager, as well as the Ted Danson Red Sox World Series/USMT World Cup wager. Both now settled! But otherwise, it's looked a bit moribund lately to me. Here's a more active prediction site in this vein associated with Philip Tetlock of Superforecasting fame: https://www.gjopen.com/ https://www.gjopen.com/
    - hhs 7y ago
      Excellent, thank you.
klenwell 7y ago
I like the concept of predictions for the same reason. Per Philip Tetlock's relentless crusading on the topic, it at least implies some sense of rigor, measurability, and accountability. This is one of the distinctions I make between predictions and forecasts in a business context (and one I've been trying to impress upon stakeholders in my company.) A prediction implies accountability. I mean you could attach consequences to a forecast (Tetlock himself likes the term "Superforecasting) and likewise ignore them with predictions. It's all just words in an end and everything is a human construct. But still I haven't given up completely.

igor47 7y ago

Predictions can be a tool to test your understanding, I guess maybe like a fantasy investing site to see how well you would do if you were investing real money. I've been playing a bunch of Metaculus[1] recently for this reason. I do agree that there are too many folks (pundits and the like) who make predictions all the time with no consequences, and I wish there was a way to hold bad predictors to account. I've thought about making tools that automatically or with crowd sourcing track the predictions of public personas. 1: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/

hhs 7y ago
That's a useful website, thanks. Recently, I had a similar question about websites or repositories that keep a track record of predictions/promises. If interested [0], one individual pointed to Long Bets. [0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20500998 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20500998
- klenwell 7y ago
  Long Bets has the famous Buffet/hedge fund wager, as well as the Ted Danson Red Sox World Series/USMT World Cup wager. Both now settled! But otherwise, it's looked a bit moribund lately to me. Here's a more active prediction site in this vein associated with Philip Tetlock of Superforecasting fame: https://www.gjopen.com/ https://www.gjopen.com/
  - hhs 7y ago
    Excellent, thank you.

klenwell 7y ago

I like the concept of predictions for the same reason. Per Philip Tetlock's relentless crusading on the topic, it at least implies some sense of rigor, measurability, and accountability. This is one of the distinctions I make between predictions and forecasts in a business context (and one I've been trying to impress upon stakeholders in my company.) A prediction implies accountability. I mean you could attach consequences to a forecast (Tetlock himself likes the term "Superforecasting) and likewise ignore them with predictions. It's all just words in an end and everything is a human construct. But still I haven't given up completely.