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Lithium-Ion Battery Prices: Moore's Law After All?
- btilly 16y agoIt is worth noting that The Innovator's Dilemma, published about a decade ago, cited a study that the author had been involved in for the auto industry. In that study, based on projected improvements in battery technology, the date that electric was expected to be competitive with gasoline engines was 2020. So yes, battery prices have been following a Moore's law trajectory (mind you not as quickly as Moore's law goes) for a very long time now. Incidentally The Innovator's Dilemma gives a large number of other examples of technologies that have shown exponential improvement for long periods of time. From my memory some of the examples included how far a steamship could go before refueling, how big a scoop a hydraulic backhoe could take, the storage density of hard drives, and the quality of steel that mini-mills can produce. Oh right, and battery capacity+life.