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Is this a more effective tactic, in expectation, than working a well-paid job at an established company and then going to Vegas every year to bet a decent chunk
by XMPPwocky 7y ago
Is this a more effective tactic, in expectation, than working a well-paid job at an established company and then going to Vegas every year to bet a decent chunk of your salary?
- conanbatt 7y agoWell, Sam Altman & Andressen have strong opinion on it: join rocket ships. You can also get a much higher position at a well paid job if one of the bets pays off, or if you find growth opportunities. While getting a promotion at google might take you 4 years, in a high growth startup you might jump 2 steps in 6 months.
- richardwhiuk 7y agoYou might, or you might go nowhere if the rocket ship falls over, which is much more likely.
- conanbatt 7y agoLike flipping any coin. Gotta match your risk appetite with the value of the gamble.
- wyclif 7y agoBut if the rocket explodes on the launching pad, as an employee you don't absorb much risk. You were probably going to jump ship in 2 years anyway, you're just doing it earlier than you thought and you can now say "I was at ___ when they were growing at ___% year-to-year" when you're interviewing for your next job.
- richardwhiuk 7y agoYou've probably taken 6 months to a year, at a lower salary - possibly longer.
- XMPPwocky 7y agoAren't they in the business of funding rocket ships, though?
- jacques_chester 7y agoLottery winners are true believers too.
- joshuamorton 7y agoTo be a bit cynical, Sam Altman and Anderssen make more money when more people work at startups. If you compare someone who joined Uber in 2014 with someone who joined Facebook or Google in 2014, I'm honestly not sure who would have come out ahead. Probably Uber, but not by a whole lot. And Uber is the best case scenario, practically speaking.
- erikpukinskis 7y agoWay better than Vegas. But you can invest 2+ years and get nothing. If you can repeat the process several times, each time picking better bets, then you stand a good chance to win big. Maybe 50/50 chance of hitting a million dollar win over 12 years and 5 contracts. Assuming you leave some sinking ships and some consecutive years really pulling hard at promising companies. But you should probably also be investing in property and a 401K. None of it is guaranteed, but if you’re patient and reactive and work hard and treat people like you want to build lifelong relationships, it sorta IS guaranteed you’ll be in a good place after 20 years. The only guaranteed way to be a millionaire is to work for big companies, relentlessly push up the ladder, invest 15-25% religiously and never touch it. That WILL make you a millionaire in 20 years, but you won’t be able to think about much other than your next promotion and your budget.
- conanbatt 7y agoSome day what employees actually make with stocks will be public and doubt will be dissipated all ways. MAybe a company like Forge can do it.